The research proposed here aims to investigate the usefulness of imprecise probability concepts for assessing and processing the large and diverse uncertainty that needs to be considered in climate policy analysis. Imprecise probabilities are constituted b y entire sets of probability measures. They provide a satisfactory model of complete ignorance, which is an important prerequisite for quantifying poor states of information such as encountered in climate change research. Classical probability theory faces severe difficulties in this field as the debate around quantifying uncertainties in the IPCC Assessment reports shows.
The project consists of a theoretical part to be mainly conducted at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, USA, (external host) and an applicational part to be executed at the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, Germany (return host). The theoretical part consists in an analysis of the decision theoretical as well as evidential basis of imprecise probabilities in the light of climate change. In the applied part, it will be investigated how the presence of ambiguity, i.e. imprecise information, can alter the results of model-based analyses of climate protection strategies and policy instruments.
The fellowship would help to transfer knowledge from one of the top research centres in decision and information sciences to the European research area. It would significantly improve the ability of the fellow to establish an excellent and independent research career in Europe. The proposed research on the science-policy interface in global climate change is highly relevant for the stated objectives of the Community.
Fields of science
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesenvironmental sciencessustainability sciences
- natural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsstatistics and probability
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
Call for proposal
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