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Supermodeling by combining imperfect models

Supermodeling by combining imperfect models

Objective

Scientists develop computer models of real, complex systems to increase understanding of their behaviour and make predictions. A prime example is the Earth's climate. Complex climate models are used to compute the climate change in response to expected changes in the composition of the atmosphere due to man-made emissions. Years of research have improved the ability to simulate the climate of the recent past but these models are still far from perfect. The model projections of the globally averaged temperature increase by the end of this century differ by as much as a factor of two, and differ completely in regard to projections for specific regions of the globe.
Current practice commonly averages the predictions of the separate models. Our proposed approach is instead to form a consensus by combining the models into one super model. The super model has learned from past observations how to optimally exchange information among individual models at every moment in time. Results in nonlinear dynamics suggest that the models can be made to synchronize with each other even if only a small amount of information is exchanged, forming a consensus that best represents reality. This innovative approach to reduce uncertainty might be compared to a group of scientists resolving their differences through dialogue, rather than simply voting or averaging their opinions.
Experts from non-linear dynamics, machine-learning and climate science are brought together within SUMO to produce a climate change simulation with a super model combining state-of-the-art climate models. The super-modelling concept has the potential to provide improved estimates of global and regional climate change, so as to motivate and inform policy decisions. The approach is applicable in other situations where a small number of alternative models exist of the same real-world complex system, as in economy, ecology or biology.
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Coordinator

MACEDONIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AND ARTS

Address

Av. Krste Misirkov 2
1000 Skopje

North Macedonia

Activity type

Research Organisations

EU Contribution

€ 356 200

Administrative Contact

Ljupco Kocarev (Prof.)

Participants (7)

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POTSDAM INSTITUT FUER KLIMAFOLGENFORSCHUNG

Germany

EU Contribution

€ 219 891

LEIBNIZ-INSTITUT FUER MEERESWISSENSCHAFTEN AN DER UNIVERSITAET KIEL

Germany

EU Contribution

€ 22 646

STICHTING KATHOLIEKE UNIVERSITEIT

Netherlands

EU Contribution

€ 316 853

KONINKLIJK NEDERLANDS METEOROLOGISCH INSTITUUT-KNMI

Netherlands

EU Contribution

€ 361 120

UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN

Norway

EU Contribution

€ 372 795

INSTITUT JOZEF STEFAN

Slovenia

EU Contribution

€ 292 189

UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI

United States

EU Contribution

€ 193 979

Project information

Grant agreement ID: 266722

Status

Closed project

  • Start date

    1 October 2010

  • End date

    31 March 2014

Funded under:

FP7-ICT

  • Overall budget:

    € 2 849 592

  • EU contribution

    € 2 135 673

Coordinated by:

MACEDONIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AND ARTS

North Macedonia