Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS


To predict the power produced from grid-connected wind farms by using meteorological forecasting and to implement this prediction at electrical utilities. The time-frame is from 0 to 48 hours ahead. This is done by extending and applying the results of the JOULE project: "Short-term prediction of local wind conditions" and of the JOULE2 project: "Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres", and EFP (Energy Research Program) project: "Using Meteorological Predictions". The main goal was to develop the models to such an extent that it can be demonstrated that any utility with a certain amount of installed wind energy capacity can use the models with economic benefits.
A further goal was to show that these methods and techniques developed in Europe can be used world-wide and thereby create further opportunities for the EU wind power industry.
In the project four areas have been chosen: Denmark; England, Scotland and Wales; Greece (Crete); and Iowa in the USA.

Results and Conclusions

The results can be categorised in three categories:

1. The models were used by the two major Danish utilities in their daily dispatch with good results, the predictions were used for trading and planning.
2. Using the National Grid Model it was shown that the forecasts gave improved fossil fuel savings over persistence for the England & Wales grid at least 13% better at 40% penetration.
3. Comparing the predictions to actual observations revealed that the predictions were very accurate. Severe storms were also predicted well.

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