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A study to perform an uncertainty analysis of the European accident consequence assessment system, COSYMA involved a series of analyses of the uncertainty in different sections of the system, followed by a final analysis of the uncertainty in the whole system.

This report describes the analysis of the uncertainty in the model predictions resulting from uncertainty in the values to be assigned to the input parameters describing internal and external dosimetry and consumption rates. The study evaluated the uncertainty on individual doses and risks, the extent of countermeasures and the numbers of health effects in the population.

The study showed that the uncertainty on the extent of early countermeasures is more than a factor of 100 for the areas where sheltering or evacuation would be required and about a factor of 20 on the area where iodine tablets would be required. The uncertainty on the numbers of early fatalities and on the numbers of fatal cancers was also analysed.

The parameters from this part of the analysis to be included in the final analysis were identified as some of those describing the behaviour of material in the lung following inhalation, parameters from the metabolic models for plutonium, caesium, iodine and tellurium, those describing the uncertainty on external dose from deposited caesium and ruthenium and some of the location factors.tors.

Additional information

Authors: JONES J A ET AL, NRPB, Didcot (GB);HASEMANN I, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);FISCHER F, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);EHRHARDT J, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);KRAAN B C P, Delft University of Technology (NL);COOKE R M, Delft University of Technology (NL);GOOSSENS L H J, Delft University of Technology (NL)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 18825 EN (2001), pp.183. Euro: 28.00
Availability: Available from EUR-OP sales agents. URL:
ISBN: ISBN:92-894-2085-5
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