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A study to perform an uncertainty analysis of the European accident consequence assessment system, COSYMA involved a series of analyses of the uncertainty in different sections of the system, followed by a final analysis of the uncertainty in the whole system.

This report describes the analysis of the uncertainty in the model predictions resulting from uncertainty in the values to be assigned to the input parameters describing atmospheric dispersion and deposition. The study evaluated the uncertainty on air and ground concentration, individual doses and risks, the extent of countermeasures and the numbers of health effects in the population. The calculations were undertaken for a number of situations with and without allowing for the effects of countermeasures.

The study showed that the uncertainty on the extent of early countermeasures is about a factor of 5 for the areas where sheltering or evacuation would be required and about a factor of 30 on the area where iodine tablets would be required. The uncertainty on the numbers of early fatalities, on the areas relocated or affected by milk bans and on the numbers of fatal cancers are also analysed.

The parameters from this part of the analysis to be included in the final analysis were identified as the deposition parameters for aerosols and elemental iodine together with the dispersion parameters.ters.

Additional information

Authors: HASEMANN I, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);FISCHER F, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);EHRHARDT J, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);JONES J A, NRPB, Didcot (GB);COOKE R M, Delft University of Technology (NL);KRAAN B C P, Delft University of Technology (NL);GOOSSENS L H J, Delft University of Technology (NL)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 18222 EN (2001), pp.163. Euro: 25.00
Availability: Available from EUR-OP sales agents. URL:
ISBN: ISBN:92-894-2087-1
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