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This report describes the analysis of the uncertainty in the model predictions resulting from uncertainty in the values to be assigned to the input parameters describing transfer of radionuclides along food chains. The study evaluated the uncertainty on individual doses and risks, the extent of countermeasures and the numbers of health effects in the population.

The study showed that the uncertainty (expressed as the ratio of the 95th to the 5th percentile of the probability distribution on the expectation value of the consequence) on the extent of the area where food restrictions would be imposed, and its time integral, lies between about 5 and about 70 for the CB2 source term, and between about 70 and about 500 for the DBA source term. The uncertainty on the extent of the area where restrictions would be imposed on grain production is larger as the area could be very small for some of the parameter values considered. The parameters whose uncertainty impacts on the extent of milk and beef restrictions, green vegetable restrictions and cereal restrictions are also considered.

The study showed that the uncertainty on the numbers of fatal cancers are between factors of about 3 and 100, with larger uncertainties on the numbers of effects if no countermeasures are taken. The uncertainties making the most important contributions to the overall uncertainty are those on the values of Fm for iodine and caesium, the interception factor for pasture and the retention time for hay and silage. ge.

Additional information

Authors: GOOSSENS L H J, Delft University of Technology (NL);COOKE R M, Delft University of Technology (NL);KRAAN B C P, Delft University of Technology (NL);EHRHARDT J, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);FISCHER F, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);HASEMANN I, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);BROWN J, NRPB Didcot (GB);JONES J A, NRPB Didcot (GB);SMITH J G, NRPB Didcot (GB)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 18823 EN (2001), pp.126. Euro: 19.00
Availability: Available from EUR-OP sales agents. URL:
ISBN: ISBN: 92-894-2089-8
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