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A study to perform an uncertainty analysis of the European accident consequence assessment system, COSYMA involved a series of analyses of the uncertainty in different sections of the system, followed by a final analysis of the uncertainty in the whole system. The study evaluated the uncertainty on air and ground concentration, individual doses and risks, the extent of countermeasures and the numbers of health effects in the population. The calculations were undertaken for a number of situations with and without allowing for the effects of countermeasures.

This report describes the methods used to undertake the analysis, the conditions considered in the study and the reasons for the choices made in planning the study. It gives a summary of the methods used for eliciting expert opinion, combining the distributions obtained from different experts, and obtaining distributions on the input parameters of COSYMA from the distributions obtained from the experts. It describes the steps involved in carrying out the analysis, and justifies the method used to select the uncertain parameters for the final analysis. .

Additional information

Authors: GOOSSENS L H J, Delft University of Technology (NL);KRAAN B C P, Delft University of Technology (NL);COOKE R M, Delft University of Technology (NL);JONES J A, NRPB, Didcot (GB);BROWN J, NRPB, Didcot (GB);EHRHARDT J, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);FISCHER F, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE);HASEMANN I, FZK, Karlsruhe (DE)
Bibliographic Reference: EUR 18827 EN (2001), pp.80. Euro: 13.00
Availability: EUR-OP Reference:KI-NA-18827-EN-S. Available from EUR-OP sales agents. URL:
ISBN: ISBN: 92-894-2083-9
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