Community Research and Development Information Service - CORDIS


Procedures Guide for structured expert judgment, EUR 18820

Funded under: FP5-EAECTP C


This document is a guide for using structured expert judgment to quantify uncertainty in quantitative models. The methods applied here have been developed by a host or researchers over the last 30 years. During the years 1990 - 1999, the European Commission and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission undertook a joint uncertainty study of accident consequence codes for nuclear power plants using structured expert judgment. The purpose was not only to perform an uncertainty analysis of the US accident consequence code MACCS and the European accident consequence code COSYMA. The wider purpose was to form a baseline for the state of the art in using structured expert judgment for quantifying uncertainty. The reports emerging from this work are intended to be useful outside the community of nuclear accident consequence modeling. Indeed the quantification of uncertainty in the modeling of dispersion, deposition, food-chain transport, and cancer induction, may be used in many fields of environmental modeling and health protection. In the same spirit the methods for using structured expert judgment to quantify uncertainty are applicable far beyond the accident consequence modeling community.

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