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PASHMINA Report Summary

Project ID: 244766
Funded under: FP7-SSH
Country: Italy

Final Report Summary - PASHMINA (PAradigm SHifts Modelling and INnovative Approaches)

PASHMINA aims to show that it is possible to better address global changes in a long term perspective (2030-2050) through the development of new, experimental tools (models and indicators) with enhanced capabilities to take into account the interaction between the economy and the environment, paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus and the land-use and territorial functions. The main objectives of PASHMINA include:

- Production of exploratory scenarios (qualitative storylines) of future global change options up to 2030 and 2050, complemented by a quantitative analysis of key development indicators (GDP, well-being, etc.) undertaken by means of global long term meta-models;
- Analysis of the consequences of the paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus related to the urban functions: housing, mobility, recreation, etc.;
- Analysis of the possible paradigm shifts in the land use and territorial functions related to agriculture, forestry and more in general ecosystem services: e.g. biofuels, biodiversity, ecosystems metabolism, etc.;
- First development a new generation of global indicators and models, starting from already existing sustainability accounting and general equilibrium modelling frameworks and adapting these to make them (more) sensitive to paradigm shifts in the long-term perspective;
- Pilot assessment of possible adaptation and mitigation strategies to tackle with different paradigm shifts, evaluating their trade-offs;
- Production of a comparative evaluation of the advancements in modelling tools achieved by PASHMINA, and to disseminate those in the scientific and stakeholders communities.

In fact, the project offers an umbrella for a number of activities, which were deployed according to the following workplan:

- WP0 Project Management to (i) ensure the internal and external project representation (including contacts with the EC and all other relevant stakeholders), (ii) to guarantee the Scientific coordination and Financial management (WP leader: ISIS);
- WP1 Global meta-analysis to produce comprehensive qualitative scenarios for Europe by scanning the range of development options up to 2030 and 2050. The main result of the WP is the production of a new generation of long term meta-models addressing the evolutions of key economic, social, technological and environmental indicators of the possible future states of the system at 2050 depending on different paradigm shifts. These long-term meta-models will be applied within WP1 to elaborate backcasting exercises. Linkages downward with the transition scenario forecasts produced in the following WP2 Paradigm shift and urbanisation and WP3 Integrated assessment of landuse competition Workpackages will be explored (WP leader: MCRIT);
- WP2 Paradigm shifts and urbanization to investigate the consequences of the paradigm shifts in the energy-transport-environment nexus related to the urban functions. The WP will combine three main research topics: a qualitative assessment of these consequences, the enhancement of global tools and models to quantify these consequences, and a GIS assessment of consequences on urban sprawl on specific local applications. The paradigm shifts analysed at global level in WP1 will be considered as driving and/or constraining forces in these local applications (WP leader: Enerdata).

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