Wspólnotowy Serwis Informacyjny Badan i Rozwoju - CORDIS

Method for GIS-based torrential hazard prediction

Method for GIS-based torrential hazard prediction. Using PCRaster Environmental Modelling Language, combining map-based geo information, time series, and process equations to describe processes of initiation, propagation and deposition involved in debris-flow activity (model PROMOTOR-df).

The GIS-based model developed for hazard assessment at catchment scale is indicated as Probability Model for Torrent Debris Flows (PROMOTOR-df). The model provides first-order probability predictions for different debris-flow magnitudes from an individual torrent, based on end-user specified scenarios for precipitation and using a wide range of catchment properties. The scenarios simulate torrent behaviour during the full extent of the event and for all parts of the torrent involved, for which reason the modelling is indicated as 'dynamic'.

The central concepts of the model combines georeferenced information from the torrent to be analysed (DTM, catchment properties), empirical equations describing torrent slope and channel processes, and detailed rainfall data (intensity and duration of precipitation).

The 'dynamic' modelling applied in PROMOTOR-df is based on the PCRaster Environmental Modelling Language, developed at the Faculty of Geographical Sciences of Utrecht University. The model consists of two related parts, one for torrent catchment behaviour, and one for outflow of debris flow and/or water flow on the fan below the catchment outlet. At present, the catchment part is completed, while the fan part will be completed in the near future. The catchment part is, however, relevant as such because it predicts the probability of hazardous debris flows leaving the catchment for a given scenario, specified by the end-user.

Potential end-users are managers of infrastructure, administration officers at local or regional level, etc.

Comprehensive guidelines and instructions have been developed for end-users.

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