Wspólnotowy Serwis Informacyjny Badan i Rozwoju - CORDIS

Climate change effects on land use and ecosystems: Scenario development methodology

The ACCELERATES socio-economic scenarios for the simulation of the impact of climate change scenarios were developed using an integrated approach. Available information and research results from the climate change literature were combined with a socio-economic approach. This information was synthesised in three matrices reporting the impact of the main economic driving forces on model simulation parameters.

Matrix 1 contains information about the weight and the role of Global Driving Forces and represents the reference background at the global level, for a panel of socio-economic and agricultural experts.

Matrix 2 contains information about Agricultural Sector Driving Forces. Information derived from downscaled climate change models, together with expert knowledge and model results (e.g. statistics and outputs of general equilibrium models) were compiled by the panel. In the final step, the expert panel utilises the ASDF data stored in Matrix 2, to identify their effects on the Agricultural Model Parameters at the local scale (Matrix 3), with the help of data about local agricultural systems and climate change patterns.

Matrix 3 contains the values required to run the simulation models.

This methodology is coherent with the approach developed by the IPCC for the Third Assessment Report, in which it is recognised that, owing to the present degree of understanding of global change phenomena formal modelling techniques should be coupled with expert judgement to obtain future projections.

More information on the QUILT project can be found at:

Reported by

University of Trieste
Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Piazzale Europa 1
34127 Trieste
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