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Project ID: ENG2-CT-1999-00003
Finanziato nell'ambito di: FP5-EESD
Paese: Austria

Analysis of Long-Run scenarios and use of MESSAGE-MACRO

The systems-engineering model MESSAGE is an energy system cost optimisation model for the world under perfect foresight. The original model was augmented to include induced technological progress. The analysis with MESSAGE covers issues of the very-long-run optimal configuration of the World energy system. The IIASA modelling team developed a set of global energy-environment scenarios of high economic and energy demand growth in which technological change unfolds in alternative "path dependent" directions.

The scenarios share common demographic, economic, and energy demand developments, but explore alternative development pathways for the technology mix and future carbon emissions. Enhanced expertise was gained through the analysis and the assessment of long-term global and world-regional E3 (energy-economy-environment) scenarios. Such global scenarios can serve as a background for world-regional or national studies; past examples of such activities and related results include contributions to the IPCC and collaboration with the World Energy Council (WEC).

Finally, MESSAGE was used to estimate the impact of R&D expenditures on specific electricity generation technologies for two R&D objectives; (1) the mitigation of cumulative CO2 emissions, (2) the reduction of consumer costs.

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Reported by

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project, (IIASA.ECS), Austria
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361