Servizio Comunitario di Informazione in materia di Ricerca e Sviluppo - CORDIS

Global Energy and Technology Trends to 2030

The POLES model is a global sectoral model of the world energy system. It has been developed in the framework of a hierarchical structure of interconnected sub-models at the international, regional and national level. The dynamics of the model are based on a recursive (year by year) simulation process of energy demand and supply with lagged adjustments to prices and a feedback loop through international energy prices. The model is fully operational and can produce detailed long-term (2030) world energy and CO2 emission outlooks with demand, supply and price projections by main region.

IEPE has concentrated on work that has allowed the update and enhancement of the POLES Reference Case with a view to specifically serve the needs of the SAPIENT project. Besides the update of the model's entire database up to the years 1997-1998, the following sets of hypotheses has been fully revised:

- Demographic and economic growth by POLES region;

- Oil and gas resources,

- Definition of a full 2030 world CO2 entitlement scenario for the POLES regions, along a "soft landing" path (progressive stabilisation of emissions in developing countries) which was used as a benchmark by the other models in the context of GHG emission abatement scenarios.

POLES has been developed to offer detailed energy scenarios for the world in 38 regions for different sets of hypotheses of Government R&D and/or carbon emission constraints.

Informazioni correlate

Reported by

Institut d’ Economique et de Politique de l’ Energie (IEPE.CNRS), France
BP 47 - 38040 CEDEX 9
38040 Grenoble