Servicio de Información Comunitario sobre Investigación y Desarrollo - CORDIS

Stochastic Outlook and R&D Policy Analysis using the PROMETHEUS Stochastic Model

The aim of the PROMETHEUS stochastic outlook is to provide assessments on the likelihood of key assumptions underpinning the Baseline and provide assessments on ranges of key results thus giving indications as to the uncertainty associated with them. Unlike most ranges routinely reported in forecasting exercises PROMETHEUS assessments are characterised by a certain degree of rigour as they will have specific probabilities associated with them (quantiles). The stochastic outlook has been build under some key assumptions, including a median climate policy stance for the different regions of the world and a common technology-by-technology R&D Outlook (both government and private) for the 2050 horizon. The PROMETHEUS baseline projections were used to establish a benchmark against which the impact of R&D policies on a wide range of quantifiable SD indicators has been evaluated. The PROMETHEUS stochastic model has been applied to examine the two alternative R&D scenarios considered in SAPIENTIA: a “High R&D” scenario, implying the doubling of total energy-related R&D (Government and Private for the whole world) on the technologies covered within SAPIENTIA over the period 2006-2025, and a “Zero GERD” scenario, implying the elimination of Government energy-related R&D (GERD) worldwide from the whole Outlook (to 2050). The stochastic model has also been applied to perform extensive experiments in the form of R&D "shocks" which aimed at examining the impact on sustainability indicators of injecting R&D expenditure on individual technologies. After suitable analytical treatment PROMETHEUS results have been used to provide the essential parameters of the decision support tool.This tool has then been used for carrying out "real life" R&D portfolio exploration.

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Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of National Technical University of Athens
9, Iroon Polytechniou Street
157 73 Zografou
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