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Seismic source characteristics and rupture dynamics, seismic behaviour of faults, strain rate, source parameters and earthquake models

This result concerns an additional approach in that we now consider the forward modelling of dynamic rupture in the presence of geometrical complexities, and we model the faults segments in the Marmara Sea in order to assess the likelihood of very large, through-going ruptures that may threaten the city of Istanbul. In addition, we have modified and extended our innovative approach to model earthquake-cycle behaviour using realistic heterogeneity in rate-and-state friction. These simulations show how rupture complexity can be generated, and how the difference between young, immature faults (structurally complex) and smooth, mature faults can be parameterised.

The resulting scenario earthquakes exhibit the same features as seen in observed seismicity in terms of their spatio-temporal evolution, the final slip distribution and the position of the hypocenter. We use these scenario events for ground-motion calculations. This approach is the first attempt ever, considering the literature in earthquake seismology and seismic hazard that directly links earthquake-cycle simulation to near-source ground-motion prediction.

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Reported by

ETH Hoengerberg