Service Communautaire d'Information sur la Recherche et le Développement - CORDIS

Analysis of epidemic spreading over social and computer networks

We have developed a theory of epidemic spreading, which is based on a network picture, and on a novel structural analysis of the network. The theory makes a number of predictions, which have been tested extensively in simulations, and strongly confirmed. Our ideas also naturally suggest a number of practical strategies for influencing epidemic spreading.

For example, if it is desired to enhance spreading (of innovation or product adoption), our picture has concrete suggestions for how to do so; and similarly, if the spreading is to be minimized (computer viruses, or biological epidemics), we offer strategies here also. Application of our theory is dependent on measuring or estimating the network over which the spreading takes place - including, if possible, the relative probabilities (per unit time) for spreading over each link.

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