Forschungs- & Entwicklungsinformationsdienst der Gemeinschaft - CORDIS

Analysis of the accuracy of real time runoff forecasts in a boreal

The further development of the hydrological model and data assimilation algorithm for the Finnish flood forecasting system (SYKE-WSFS) was finished in 2004. The effect of the SCA observations on the accuracy of the forecasts was tested by making forecasts over spring period with and without SCA observations. The accuracy was tested on springs 2003-2005. The hydrological model was run in two versions with and without using the SCA observations and the simulated flood forecasts were compared in 14 different discharge measurement points. When the final version of the data assimilation algorithm was applied, the accuracy of the forecasts improved considerably or slightly in 1-3 forecast points, depending on the spring and the accuracy did not decrease in any of the forecast points.

Since spring 2005 the developed method is used in the Finnish operational hydrological forecasting system SYKE-WSFS. The real time flood forecasts are made for the territory of whole Finland, including cross-boundary watersheds, total of 390 000km{2}. The forecasting system provides forecasts for over 1200 points on lakes and rivers in Finland. The forecasts are provided for public by web pages in where forecasts are updated several times per day. The hydrological forecasting system SYKE-WSFS amongst the other hydrological variables shows also simulated forecasted and observed SCA for over 1200 simulated points. The maps of simulated and observed SCA for the territory of Finland are produced daily.

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Finnish Environment Institute
Kesaekatu 6 P.O.Box 140
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