Servicio de Información Comunitario sobre Investigación y Desarrollo - CORDIS


SMART Informe resumido

Project ID: ICA3-CT-2002-10006
Financiado con arreglo a: FP5-INCO 2
País: Portugal

D02.1 Identification of problem Issues: The deliverable presents an introduction to the approach of the problems definition

The aim of this document is the development of a theoretical support to the socio-economic framework. Above are presented the main principles to be followed by the case study partners to build each socio-economic report.

A substantial part of this deliverable is concerned with forecasting the changes in water demand given certain changes in the social and economic dynamics. Nevertheless, more then just a support to forecast, it is a framework to help a more exploratory approach which has the potential to provide some of the possible deviations from the expected future.

The deliverable presents an introduction to the approach of the problems definition. The structure of this document is divided in the following parts: Water Demand Issues; Socioeconomic analysis concerns on SMART project; and Suggestions to a deeper analysis.

The analysis of water demand issues is mostly concerned with the expected change in the demand of water, given certain levels of socio-economic changes, with special attention on population scenarios. These are based on a set of assumptions, extrapolated from current understanding of demand and its constraints. The assumptions are based on the principles to build water demands, adapted to each case study.

However, the population changes and its effect on water demand are not entirely predictable, especially when it takes into consideration all the interactions between the socio-economic processes.

This document also provides the procedure for estimate future water demand. The description provides additional details for implementing the water demand analysis in each case study. The water demand forecasting algorithm needs to operate on data corresponding to each case study, to each economic sector, and to each forecast year.

Forecasts are devising for domestic use and non-domestic (agricultural, commercial and industrial sub-sectors) for case study regions; and for 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. The projection of residential water use to 2025 will be simulated using a linear-predictive model to incorporate demographic, socio-economic, and climatic variables. The projection of non-residential water use to 2025 will be simulated separately using a constant rate model incorporating water use per economic sectors.

The relationships between the WP2 and other workpackages are presented in this deliverable. An interdisciplinary analysis is proposed to approach the best way to integrate the socio-economy into this study. One of the suggestions is to develop the analysis based on the integrated thematic analysis between socio-economic aspects and policy framework.

In suggestions for a deeper analysis it is presented the potential improvements based on the analysis of the water scarcity management, and analysis requirements of WP2. These improvements, both thematic and methodological, are basically theoretical proposals.

Reported by

University Atlantica
Antiga Fabrica da Polvora de barcarena
2730-036 Barcarena
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