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FP6

MENGTECH — Result In Brief

Project ID: 20121
Funded under: FP6-SUSTDEV
Country: Belgium

Tweaking framework models for sustainable development

Efforts to achieve ambitious EU targets regarding sustainable development must focus on the development of new energy supply and network infrastructures. An EU-funded project focused on the improvement of four related energy policy models targeting sustainable development.
Tweaking framework models for sustainable development
The 'Modelling of energy technologies prospective in a general and partial equilibrium framework' (Mengtech) project worked to develop and extend modelling frameworks for realising a better assessment of energy policies in light of sustainable development targets. Four existing models were identified as lacking with regard to the adoption and implications of future energy technologies. This is where Mengtech stepped with efforts to further their development.

To test extension of the macroeconomic 'World and EU general equilibrium' (GEM-E3) model, a climate policy scenario was evaluated. Considerations in this area showed the importance of explicit modelling of resource extraction. However, certain problems and issues came to the fore, indicating a need for model recalibration and updating. Policy analysis served to examine the impact new modelling features can have on policy assessment.

In efforts to further develop the 'World energy system' (POLES) model, project partners developed a reference and a carbon constraint projection of the world energy system until 2100. These incorporations provide a view of what major structure and development changes can be expected of the world energy system in different policy contexts. The result marks a clear need for radical changes in this area.

Work on policy cases using the 'European energy system'(Primes) model that focused on promoting the hydrogen economy, indicate that the timing for this and any envisioned successes are dependent on technological developments. Central to this is a reduction in costs of fuel cells stacks and systems. Regarding the penetration of electricity in road transport and related sectors, results show that early transformation of European road transport is more likely to be achieved on the strength of electrification rather than a shift towards a hydrogen-based system.

Use of the 'Long-term oil and petroleum extraction' (LOPEX) model was aimed at investigating conditions required for a market relaxation and a lower crude oil price. Team members then conducted a sensitivity analysis of economic, energy and environment indicators for oil price with two different versions of Nemesis (a macro-econometric EU model). One was related to exogenous technical change and the other to endogenous technical change.

Modifications to existing models through the incorporation of additional mechanisms are expected to improve policy analysis, support and participation, and facilitate approaches to decision making under uncertain conditions. Mengtech outcomes also offer the opportunity to better consider the feasibility and competition of different technologies and their potential for contributing to the achievement of sustainability targets.

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