Air quality in the future
New policies proposed for GHG reduction may have secondary impacts of their own. Specifically, such policies may affect urban air quality, especially in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. The EU-funded project URGENCHE (Urban reduction of GHG emissions in China and Europe) aimed to assess the public health and well-being impact of particular city-based GHG mitigation policies. A main goal was to develop a model and database assisting such assessment. The programme of six objectives addressed issues including urban power generation, pollution release, urban geography, demographics, and health and well-being indicators. Researchers considered 5 European and 2 Chinese cities over a 10-year period starting from 2010. Researchers completed the planned modelling platform and database. Data reflected key parameters and were intended for use with a geographic information system (GIS). Modelling predicted the outcomes of various GHG reduction policies, in comparison to a business-as-usual baseline estimate for 2020. Work focused on creating novel visualisations of the GIS results to aid dissemination to policymakers. Air pollution in China is three to five times higher than European equivalents, and it is expected to remain so under a business-as-usual scenario until 2020. Implementation of cleaner technology should reduce air pollution between 2010 and 2020, implying a general improvement for Europe. However, in China, atmospheric particles of certain sizes (PM 2.5 and PM 10) should remain constant over the same period, and nitrous pollutants may increase. Predictions suggest that most policy options would probably yield small improvements to European health and well-being, although the costs savings may be substantial. In China, the likelihood of its ongoing economic growth was seen to negate all benefits of proposed GHG reduction scenarios. Nevertheless, Chinese people value health and well-being, which may affect policy. The URGENCHE project helped to determine the consequences of GHG reduction scenarios for a total of seven major cities. The results will help city officials determine the best choices for pollution reduction, while considering health and well-being consequences.
Keywords
Air quality, greenhouse gas, China, GHG reduction, urban, well-being
