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Watching the risk factors: Artificial intelligence and the prevention of chronic conditions

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - WARIFA (Watching the risk factors: Artificial intelligence and the prevention of chronic conditions)

Reporting period: 2021-01-01 to 2022-06-30

The United Nations has specifically addressed the need for preventing noncommunicable diseases in their "2030 agenda for sustainable development". WHO defines noncommunicable diseases as Chronic Conditions (CCs) caused by a combination of genetic, physiological, environmental and behavioural factors which can affect all age groups and countries. The leading causes of death for the citizens of the EU of CCs include cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes. The management of CCs represents an increasing burden on health care systems worldwide.

The WARIFA project will develop a prototype of a combined early risk assessment tool that will provide individual citizens with personalised recommendations for the four main CCs.The WARIFA app will be available to individual citizens via a user-friendly app on their smartphone.

AI-based combined early risk assessment can empower citizens to adopt healthier habits and a better lifestyle by providing personalised recommendations on how to change their risk behaviour. The benefits of early risk assessment, prevention and intervention will be evident both at individual and at health care system level.

At individual level, citizens will be supported in improving by at least 20% each risk factor by increasing the level of physical activity; reducing sun exposure; or the number of hypoglycaemic events. At the health care level, WARIFA will contribute to the early diagnosis of CCs by promoting early identification of risks.
WARIFA started on the 1st of January 2021 and will have a duration of 48 months. The WARIFA consortium consist of 12 partners from six European countries. The consortium gathered virtually for the project kick-off meeting on the 1st and 2nd of February 2021, which marked the formal start of the collaboration between WARIFA’s eight work packages.

The consortium gathered virtually again for a Consortium Wide Meeting on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd of June 2022, this time with all eight WARIFA work packages active.
The following main results were achieved by June 2022:

1. evidence basis report on existing validated risk calculators and preventive digital systems for the studied CCs
2. report of the risk factors at the community level in pilot communities in Norway, Romania, Spain
3. blueprint for the design of the AI preventive system including input and output variables
4. report on end-user interface design and usability-related requirements
5. report on the relevant data sources requirements (including from sensors and public community data sources)
6. data pilot into a joint processing pipeline for data fusion and feature extraction
7. list of risk factors and a risk calculator
8. review of the literature on health-relevant outcomes
9. review of the literature on app-use and usability
10. personalization and validation protocol
11. plan for the dissemination and exploitation of results
12. Web site
13. plan for the dissemination and exploitation of results update 1

The following milestones were reached by June 2022:
MS1: Management Plans (30 Jun 2021)
MS2: Data Structure Model (30 Jun 2022)
The WARIFA project aims to facilitate personalised early risk prediction, prevention and intervention based on AI and Big Data technologies. We want to explore how AI-based mobile applications may be used as a tool for individual lifestyle changes. This includes the use of mobile applications to analyse and estimate individual risk, correlate it with the community risk profile, provide evidence-based and personalized advice together with prompts for preventive lifestyle changes. The aim is to empower citizens to self-monitor the implementation of risk-reducing lifestyle changes.

Health apps are already being used in the prevention and management of CCs. However, the issue of long-term commitment continues to be a major challenge. By improving the understanding of what simple changes in the users` behaviour can do for their health, the motivation to make lifestyle-related changes can improve substantially. The willingness to engage in their own health, may be further increased by providing users with one single app that can manage multiple CCs. In addition to better self-management for citizens and patients, the Warifa app may also help healthcare personnel. Although the Warifa app is primarily designed for citizens and patients, information on the advice given by the app, may also inform decisions to be taken by the user`s doctor. As environmental conditions, such as air and water quality, is recorded by the app and directly can influence disease outcomes, health personnel may find the information from the Warifa app useful.

WARIFA will develop an AI-based system with the aim to help prevent chronic conditions for all citizens. To achieve this objective, it is necessary to combine ubiquitous data and personal user-generated data, and interdisciplinary efforts from clinical, technical, and sociological backgrounds.

By combining ubiquitous data from the user`s environment with user-generated data, AI algorithms can process the most relevant data in the appropriate context and then provide the tools for personalized advice resulting in more specific preventive interventions. AI and big data technologies have the potential to address these challenges by analysing risk levels and providing citizens with tailor-made advice according to the individual risk level.

A technical prototype is being developed and will be tested in a pilot trial. The aim of the testing is to get a proof of concept that a single app can provide lifestyle recommendations relevant for multiple CCs while taking into account the context of the user. By providing alternative options, the user can decide which option fits best in a specific situation and does not feel to be ruled by the AI system.

In the short term the Warifa app is expected to influence individual risk factors, e.g. reducing the number of sunburns or increase physical activity. In the long term, the use of preventive apps may improve the outcomes of CCs such as reducing the number of skin cancer cases or limiting the complications of diabetes.

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