Final Report Summary - WSREPE (Welfare State and the Rise of Extreme Politics in Europe)
-The project Welfare State and the Rise of Radical Politics in Europe had two principal objectives. The first objective was to investigate the impact of welfare state policies on support for radical populist parties and appeals on the left and right, and explain how variation in welfare state outputs and outcomes influences support for populist political actors and appeals across national contexts. The project focused on European countries, but it considered sizable differences in welfare state characteristics and political histories of Western and Eastern European countries.
-The second object of the project focused on gaining skills in advanced statistical methods with principal focus on techniques of multilevel analysis and cross-section time-series analysis. Also, training objectives included learning the use of the R statistical software and specialized software for multilevel modelling. The research and training objectives were closely linked, as the fulfilment of the research objective required the use of multilevel analysis and time-series analysis.
-The project started by defining support for radical-populist politics as a support for the set of attitudes or political actors challenging the status quo, namely democracy dominated by mainstream political parties of the left and right, economic globalization and integration, increasing heterogeneity of political communities and European integration. Within this framework, the left populism focuses primary on the problems of elite dominated political systems, as well as on the impact of globalization and liberalization of the economy pose for the welfare state and inequality. The right populism focuses on the national sovereignty and the limits European integration imposes on it as well as the impact globalization has on national economies and the impact immigration has on cultural homogeneity.
-Radical populist appeals as defined within the project also include messages challenging economic status quo, mostly through anti-globalist, protectionist and exclusivist messages. Protectionist messages include calls to limit the role of the market, protectionism toward national economic actors’ and reduction or limitation of economic openness. Exclusivist messages include calls to limit immigration, place greater focus on cultural homogeneity and shield national workers from immigrant competition. Left appeals place higher emphasis on protectionism whereas right appeals combine economic protectionism with cultural exclusivism. Finally, radical populist appeals include opposition towards European Union as the principal embodiment of the elite dominated democracy, open economy and integrated market. The definition of the radical populist appeals in the project is broad, because the objective is to capture positions representing challenge to political and economic status quo from various perspectives and including the range of economic and political appeals.
-The project proceeded to investigate the link between the strength of these appeals and outcomes and outputs of welfare state policies in countries of Western and eastern Europe. The research focuses on the impact welfare state policies have on the support for radical-populist appeals among citizens affected by high levels of social risk, precarious labour market position and facing increasing risk of poverty. To this end the research combines the analysis using macro-level measures of welfare state policy and its outputs with measures of the impact welfare state policies have on intensity of the social risk and labour market status of labour market outsiders in order to link the impact of welfare state policies on individual level social risk and labour market status. The dependent variables in the analysis include measures of support for radical populist political actors and appeals, including support for culturally exclusivist and economically protectionist attitudes.
Independent variables at the macro level measure policy outputs of European welfare states with respect to policies aimed at compensating labour market losers, or groups with high level of social risk, namely active and passive labour market policies, income support policies and policies directed at the young and low skilled. The impact of welfare state policies on the social risk position of citizens is measured for groups defined through sex, age, education professional status and labour market status. This allows for identification of the level of social risk for clearly defined social groups as well as comparison of risk levels and allows for the linking of the level of social risk for each group with welfare state policy measures aimed at labour market losers, which allows for accounting of their effectiveness.
-The data for political attitudes and behaviour were taken from European Social Survey, whereas data for risk status and exposure were taken from EU-SILC datasets and data for welfare state policies and their outputs, mostly with respect to labour market policies and social exclusion policies were taken from ESPROSS dataset. For countries of Central and Eastern Europe separate analysis used additional data, such and ILO and IMF data on social spending and Bertelsmann transformation index components measuring social exclusion.
-The principal hypothesis of the project is that the capacity of the welfare state to compensate labour market outsiders, or groups highly exposed to social and labour market risks, is affecting their support for radical-populist appeals. Thus, the segments of the population with high level of social risk exposure or with precarious position on the labour market are more likely to support radical populist actors in countries where welfare states are more biased toward insider groups or the elderly then in countries where welfare states have more extensive programs addressing new social risks, needs of the younger segments of the population and those with low skills as well as more active labour market policies.
-Apart from affecting the strength of support for radical populist actors among citizens with high level of exposure to labour market risk and new social risks, the variation in the structure of the welfare state is also likely to affect the size of these groups. The welfare states with larger public sector employment, more extensive active labour market policies and more extensive policies aimed at providing services to younger segments of the population and dealing with social exclusion tend to have smaller populations of labour market outsiders, and thus lower overall support for radical populist actors based on social and labour market risk status. Thus, the principal proposition of the research combines different expectations about the interaction welfare state characteristics and individual level risks levels have on support for radical populist actors and appeals as well as on the expectations about impact welfare state structure has on the size of groups supporting radical populist appeals or actors.
-The findings of the research suggest that this hypothesis needs additional qualification. The results of the analysis show that learning and experience affect significantly the way citizens see their welfare states as well as their expectations of what welfare state should do. Thus, given that citizens are not found to evaluate the effectiveness of the welfare state policies through cross-national comparison but rather on the basis of experience and learning about their own welfare system, the differences in welfare state effectiveness does not have a sizable effect on cross national differences in the level of support for radical-populist appeals among labour market outsiders. Or in other words, cross national differences in the structure and effectiveness of welfare state policies is not found to affect significantly the level of support for radical populist appeals and actors among social groups with high exposure to labour market risk and social exclusion. But, while the interactive effect is not present, the size of the mentioned groups is affected by the structure of the welfare state and this has an effect on the structure and the size of support for radical-populist actors and their appeals cross-nationally. Socialization and experience with a particular model of the welfare state affects significantly the way citizens react to exclusivist and protectionist appeals. In countries where welfare states have extensive provision for outsiders and those exposed to high level of social risk, we see stronger support for economic protectionist appeals among outsiders and support for radical left parties with pronounced pro-welfare state positions and we see more complex interaction between culturally exclusivist and economically protectionist positions. In countries where welfare state provision for outsiders and the exposed to social risk is not well developed we see stronger interconnection between culturally exclusivist and economically protectionist positions.
-Overall, the findings of the project indicate that the impact of welfare state policies on support for radical populist actors and appeals is not directly related to the effectiveness of the welfare state in compensating labour market outsiders and population with high exposure to social risk, but that the impact of welfare state is in large part conditioned by the effect welfare state has on the size and position of labour market outsides and groups exposed to social risk as well as by the impact socialization and experience have on expectations of the welfare state.
-The second object of the project focused on gaining skills in advanced statistical methods with principal focus on techniques of multilevel analysis and cross-section time-series analysis. Also, training objectives included learning the use of the R statistical software and specialized software for multilevel modelling. The research and training objectives were closely linked, as the fulfilment of the research objective required the use of multilevel analysis and time-series analysis.
-The project started by defining support for radical-populist politics as a support for the set of attitudes or political actors challenging the status quo, namely democracy dominated by mainstream political parties of the left and right, economic globalization and integration, increasing heterogeneity of political communities and European integration. Within this framework, the left populism focuses primary on the problems of elite dominated political systems, as well as on the impact of globalization and liberalization of the economy pose for the welfare state and inequality. The right populism focuses on the national sovereignty and the limits European integration imposes on it as well as the impact globalization has on national economies and the impact immigration has on cultural homogeneity.
-Radical populist appeals as defined within the project also include messages challenging economic status quo, mostly through anti-globalist, protectionist and exclusivist messages. Protectionist messages include calls to limit the role of the market, protectionism toward national economic actors’ and reduction or limitation of economic openness. Exclusivist messages include calls to limit immigration, place greater focus on cultural homogeneity and shield national workers from immigrant competition. Left appeals place higher emphasis on protectionism whereas right appeals combine economic protectionism with cultural exclusivism. Finally, radical populist appeals include opposition towards European Union as the principal embodiment of the elite dominated democracy, open economy and integrated market. The definition of the radical populist appeals in the project is broad, because the objective is to capture positions representing challenge to political and economic status quo from various perspectives and including the range of economic and political appeals.
-The project proceeded to investigate the link between the strength of these appeals and outcomes and outputs of welfare state policies in countries of Western and eastern Europe. The research focuses on the impact welfare state policies have on the support for radical-populist appeals among citizens affected by high levels of social risk, precarious labour market position and facing increasing risk of poverty. To this end the research combines the analysis using macro-level measures of welfare state policy and its outputs with measures of the impact welfare state policies have on intensity of the social risk and labour market status of labour market outsiders in order to link the impact of welfare state policies on individual level social risk and labour market status. The dependent variables in the analysis include measures of support for radical populist political actors and appeals, including support for culturally exclusivist and economically protectionist attitudes.
Independent variables at the macro level measure policy outputs of European welfare states with respect to policies aimed at compensating labour market losers, or groups with high level of social risk, namely active and passive labour market policies, income support policies and policies directed at the young and low skilled. The impact of welfare state policies on the social risk position of citizens is measured for groups defined through sex, age, education professional status and labour market status. This allows for identification of the level of social risk for clearly defined social groups as well as comparison of risk levels and allows for the linking of the level of social risk for each group with welfare state policy measures aimed at labour market losers, which allows for accounting of their effectiveness.
-The data for political attitudes and behaviour were taken from European Social Survey, whereas data for risk status and exposure were taken from EU-SILC datasets and data for welfare state policies and their outputs, mostly with respect to labour market policies and social exclusion policies were taken from ESPROSS dataset. For countries of Central and Eastern Europe separate analysis used additional data, such and ILO and IMF data on social spending and Bertelsmann transformation index components measuring social exclusion.
-The principal hypothesis of the project is that the capacity of the welfare state to compensate labour market outsiders, or groups highly exposed to social and labour market risks, is affecting their support for radical-populist appeals. Thus, the segments of the population with high level of social risk exposure or with precarious position on the labour market are more likely to support radical populist actors in countries where welfare states are more biased toward insider groups or the elderly then in countries where welfare states have more extensive programs addressing new social risks, needs of the younger segments of the population and those with low skills as well as more active labour market policies.
-Apart from affecting the strength of support for radical populist actors among citizens with high level of exposure to labour market risk and new social risks, the variation in the structure of the welfare state is also likely to affect the size of these groups. The welfare states with larger public sector employment, more extensive active labour market policies and more extensive policies aimed at providing services to younger segments of the population and dealing with social exclusion tend to have smaller populations of labour market outsiders, and thus lower overall support for radical populist actors based on social and labour market risk status. Thus, the principal proposition of the research combines different expectations about the interaction welfare state characteristics and individual level risks levels have on support for radical populist actors and appeals as well as on the expectations about impact welfare state structure has on the size of groups supporting radical populist appeals or actors.
-The findings of the research suggest that this hypothesis needs additional qualification. The results of the analysis show that learning and experience affect significantly the way citizens see their welfare states as well as their expectations of what welfare state should do. Thus, given that citizens are not found to evaluate the effectiveness of the welfare state policies through cross-national comparison but rather on the basis of experience and learning about their own welfare system, the differences in welfare state effectiveness does not have a sizable effect on cross national differences in the level of support for radical-populist appeals among labour market outsiders. Or in other words, cross national differences in the structure and effectiveness of welfare state policies is not found to affect significantly the level of support for radical populist appeals and actors among social groups with high exposure to labour market risk and social exclusion. But, while the interactive effect is not present, the size of the mentioned groups is affected by the structure of the welfare state and this has an effect on the structure and the size of support for radical-populist actors and their appeals cross-nationally. Socialization and experience with a particular model of the welfare state affects significantly the way citizens react to exclusivist and protectionist appeals. In countries where welfare states have extensive provision for outsiders and those exposed to high level of social risk, we see stronger support for economic protectionist appeals among outsiders and support for radical left parties with pronounced pro-welfare state positions and we see more complex interaction between culturally exclusivist and economically protectionist positions. In countries where welfare state provision for outsiders and the exposed to social risk is not well developed we see stronger interconnection between culturally exclusivist and economically protectionist positions.
-Overall, the findings of the project indicate that the impact of welfare state policies on support for radical populist actors and appeals is not directly related to the effectiveness of the welfare state in compensating labour market outsiders and population with high exposure to social risk, but that the impact of welfare state is in large part conditioned by the effect welfare state has on the size and position of labour market outsides and groups exposed to social risk as well as by the impact socialization and experience have on expectations of the welfare state.