Final Report Summary - RHINOMITE (A test of Bayesian decision analysis and the implications for conservation) Following project departure away from Bayesian population models, we based our research design around integral projection model (IPM)s (see Coulson, 2012), which are similar to Bayesian approaches in flavour but allow insight into both demography and evolution by linking species life history to a trait, such as body size. IPMs also allow for an easy and insightful decision framework, simply by allowing the simulation of multiple management strategies. The first research achievement was an invited paper to the 'Raffles Bulletin of Zoology', where the fellow (Traill) explored global ungulate species richness, and drivers of localised extirpation. We then developed a generalised IPM for ungulates based on data across numerous ungulate species sourced from both the literature and data available from long-term studies on ungulate populations. This work, in review at 'American Naturalist' allows insight into both the ecological and evolutionary outcomes of management intervention on an ungulate species of any size, up to approximately 500 kg. This allows biologists working on say African ungulates, where vital rate data are unavailable, opportunity to test the effects of hunting, or translocation on species population demography (such as population growth rate, female reproductive output), as well as trait change, such as body size. Further to that, we collaborated with researchers at Sherbrooke University in Canada to develop a two-sex IPM for bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). We used a 40-year individual-based dataset to parameterise the model, and this in turn allowed insight into the effects of trophy hunting on bighorn sheep, including shifts in body size following selective harvest. This work has been written-up as a research paper and following co-author approval will be submitted to 'PLoS Biology'. Another manuscript is also being prepared based on differences in age-structured or non-structured models, again with outcomes for decision-making. Research findings have been presented at three international conferences, and the fellow has been awarded a further fellowship to travel to the University of Queensland, Australia. Related documents Final Report - RHINOMITE (A test of Bayesian decision analysis and the implications for conservation)
