Objectif The central aim of this work is to explain what causes the various types of political violence found within and across African states. In contrast to the widespread view that conflict is confined to a few crisis prone states, new evidence suggests that almost all states are sites of substantial, widespread political insecurity (Raleigh et al. 2010). Civil war accounts for 35% of the conflict across African states; the remaining 65% is composed of communal and political militia violence, rioting, protests and violence against non-combatants outside of a war context. These forms of ‘invisible’ violence often involve state collusion and present a widespread risk to civilians. This proposal takes a holistic approach, looking at all forms of political violence and seeking to explain them within a novel theoretical framework emphasizing two stages of onset indicators, and employing the latest available disaggregated data methodologies for spatial and temporal dynamics. Further, it introduces spatial and scaled approaches, which are the most rigorous and well suited to a comprehensive conflict study, as risks, triggers and dynamics are spatially inscribed and hierarchical. The theoretical contribution of this work is an examination of how insurgency and opposition violence are spatial and political processes that are shaped by the political, economic and social geographies of states. The empirical contributions include an extension of the most comprehensive data on political events (ACLED) and a merging of these disaggregated data with information on local level political, economic, social and environmental conditions throughout Africa. Methodologically, this project is the first to test spatial and temporal forecasting methods on real-time conflict hotspots. Finally, the conclusions of this work have applicability to development agencies, governing bodies and international regimes concerned with the growing threat emanating from failed and failing states. Champ scientifique social scienceslawhuman rightshuman rights violationspolitical violencesocial sciencespolitical sciencespolitical transitionsrevolutionssocial sciencessocial geography Programme(s) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Thème(s) ERC-SG-SH2 - ERC Starting Grant - Institutions, values, beliefs and behaviour Appel à propositions ERC-2011-StG_20101124 Voir d’autres projets de cet appel Régime de financement ERC-SG - ERC Starting Grant Institution d’accueil THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX Contribution de l’UE € 1 258 109,17 Adresse SUSSEX HOUSE FALMER BN1 9RH Brighton Royaume-Uni Voir sur la carte Région South East (England) Surrey, East and West Sussex Brighton and Hove Type d’activité Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contact administratif Julian Golland (Mr.) Chercheur principal Clionadh Raleigh (Prof.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée Bénéficiaires (2) Trier par ordre alphabétique Trier par contribution de l’UE Tout développer Tout réduire THE UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX Royaume-Uni Contribution de l’UE € 1 258 109,17 Adresse SUSSEX HOUSE FALMER BN1 9RH Brighton Voir sur la carte Région South East (England) Surrey, East and West Sussex Brighton and Hove Type d’activité Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contact administratif Julian Golland (Mr.) Chercheur principal Clionadh Raleigh (Prof.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée THE PROVOST, FELLOWS, FOUNDATION SCHOLARS & THE OTHER MEMBERS OF BOARD, OF THE COLLEGE OF THE HOLY & UNDIVIDED TRINITY OF QUEEN ELIZABETH NEAR DUBLIN Participation terminée Irlande Contribution de l’UE € 158 620,83 Adresse COLLEGE GREEN TRINITY COLLEGE D02 CX56 DUBLIN 2 Voir sur la carte Région Ireland Eastern and Midland Dublin Type d’activité Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contact administratif Deirdre Savage (Ms.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée
