Objectif The potential of marine ice sheets to undergo rapid irreversible retreat has been considered in the glaciological community since the 1970s. One of the world’s major marine ice sheets, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), contains enough ice to raise global mean sea level by approximately 5m. However, of immediate relevance to policy makers, the likely rate of WAIS contribution to sea level change on century timescales is not known.This project will couple a state of the art ice sheet model and ocean circulation model. Ice sheet models are only now reaching sufficient maturity to be applied to predictive studies of marine ice sheet behaviour, partly due to the candidate’s recent advances in modelling the grounding line (the line dividing ice grounded on bedrock from the floating part of the ice sheet). Ocean models incorporating ice shelf cavity processes are also emerging, and the candidate’s collaborators at the outgoing host are leading development in this area. Ice sheet – ocean model coupling is essential in predictive studies due to the feedback between evolving ice shelf cavity geometry/grounding line location and ice shelf cavity circulation via sub ice shelf melt rates.The model will be applied to the Pine Island Glacier (PIG), an important outlet glacier draining a portion of the WAIS, which has been studied extensively and is currently thinning at an increasing rate. The project will use new coupled model and Bayesian calibration techniques to ascertain whether the PIG has crossed a threshold for irreversible retreat and provide a probabilistic quantification of the PIG contribution to sea level change over the next two centuries.The project is novel in the ice sheet - ocean coupling (this will be the first 3D ocean circulation model fully coupled to an evolving ice sheet model) and in the use of Bayesian calibration to provide a probabilistic prediction, an approach rarely used in glaciology. Champ scientifique natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographyglaciology Programme(s) FP7-PEOPLE - Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Thème(s) FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IOF - Marie Curie Action: "International Outgoing Fellowships for Career Development" Appel à propositions FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IOF Voir d’autres projets de cet appel Régime de financement MC-IOF - International Outgoing Fellowships (IOF) Coordinateur EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH Contribution de l’UE € 381 525,10 Adresse Raemistrasse 101 8092 Zuerich Suisse Voir sur la carte Région Schweiz/Suisse/Svizzera Zürich Zürich Type d’activité Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contact administratif Martin Lüthi (Dr.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée