Objectif A major challenge of the coming years will be to maintain biodiversity under changing environmental conditions. Anticipation is an important dimension to tackle this challenge, where models play a major role. So far however, our capacity to predict communities from single species has remained limited. We now need to improve existing models and develop new ones to better account for assembly processes. This is the aim of the recently proposed SESAM framework (Spatially-Explicit Species Assemblage Modeling). Arising from this theoretical formulation, I aim to develop, implement, and test an innovative framework to model species assemblage combining many pre-existing approaches to biodiversity prediction to produce improved spatially explicit projections and overcome single methods limitations. As efforts are currently made on plants, this project will be the first to attempt this comprehensively on animal assemblages, here European reptiles, in 3 nested study areas. To ensure its feasibility, it will be developed in a step-by-step way: i) gathering species and environmental data; ii) performing modeling analyses (species distribution models) to obtain the potential composition of assemblages filtered only for abiotic constrains; iii) defining macroecological constraints on community properties through macroecological modeling; iv) identifying species interactions and deriving ecological assembly rules (EARs) for the considered assemblages, to be used as biotic filter; v) using data and results previously obtained to unify all components; for this, I aim to develop a highly original step to integrate the identified EARs in the novel predictive process. I will test the robustness and scale-dependence of all component and of the whole framework; and finally vi) applying the framework to derive a new generation of climate change projections for reptiles assemblage at all scales. Project results will be relevant for both theoretical science and conservation biology. Champ scientifique natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystemsnatural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes Programme(s) FP7-PEOPLE - Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Thème(s) FP7-PEOPLE-2012-IEF - Marie-Curie Action: "Intra-European fellowships for career development" Appel à propositions FP7-PEOPLE-2012-IEF Voir d’autres projets de cet appel Régime de financement MC-IEF - Intra-European Fellowships (IEF) Coordinateur UNIVERSITE DE LAUSANNE Contribution de l’UE € 184 709,40 Adresse QUARTIER UNIL CENTRE - BATIMENT UNICENTRE 1015 LAUSANNE Suisse Voir sur la carte Région Schweiz/Suisse/Svizzera Région lémanique Vaud Type d’activité Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contact administratif Antoine Guisan (Prof.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée