Periodic Reporting for period 4 - DEBUNKER (The Problem of European Misperceptions in Politics, Health, and Science:Causes, Consequences, and the Search for Solutions) Reporting period: 2021-03-01 to 2023-02-28 Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project The primary goal of the project was to understand misperceptions – the facts that people believe that simply are not true. The project has significantly advanced our understanding of corrections and misperceptions – while also expanding into additional areas in response to world events. Misperceptions pose a significant problem to society and democracy. Dealing with problems like vaccine hesitancy/skepticism and climate change require that the public be informed. But surveys consistently show that the public is misinformed about important issues in politics, science, and health. This project is an attempt to better understand why misperceptions are commonplace, and how to correct them. During the life of the project, the scientific goals have evolved in two important ways. First, has been understanding and addressing “fake news” and untrustworthy online content more globally – who consumes it, how much they consume, and ultimately how to combat these forms of content. If misperceptions are a dangerous fire to democracy, then “fake news” might be the oxygen that feeds it. The project sought to better understand the scope of the fake news problem, and to test solutions that could effectively limit and deter the spread of this new type of misinformation.The second development was to understand public response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and support for vaccination and vaccination policy (both about SARS-CoV-2 specifically as well as more generally). The pandemic posed a significant risk to human life, and vaccines were an essential component of reducing and removing restrictions. Understanding attitudes towards vaccination – both individual level willingness to vaccinate as well as broader attitudes about vaccination policy – is important for society.In conclusion (and as described below), we successful accomplished key goals of the project. Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far Over the life of the project, we have conducted tens of thousands of survey interviews to better understand public attitudes and behavior on these key topics. As a team, we have published over 30 scientific peer reviewed journal articles in some of the highest-ranked scientific journals, such as Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS) and Nature Human Behaviour. The project team has similarly used multiple avenues for disseminating results as widely as possible. In addition to scientific journal articles, we have presented work to academic and scientific audiences at dozens of conferences, workshops, and seminars; we have presented lectures and keynote addresses to public audiences; we have issued press releases about our work and talked to reporters (who have helped bring our results to the general public); and we have participated in television and radio programs to speak about project result directly with the public.Importantly, the project has amassed a significant body of work that shows that corrections are effective at reducing misperceptions. This research is an important and effective counter-point to earlier research (by the PI) that giving people information to correct misperceptions would “backfire”, causing people to believe incorrect facts even more strongly. However, there are some important and notable caveats about the effectiveness of corrections. First, the effects of corrections go away over time, and fairly quickly – this dissipating is a process of days or weeks rather than months or years. Second, changing factual beliefs may only have limited effect on related beliefs, such as how people perceive politicians or they support for different policies.The project has also amassed a large body of work concerning “fake news.” In a landmark study of the consumption of this type of content during the 2016 US Presidential election, we discovered aspects that alarming as well as aspects that are reassuring. On the alarming side, we find that a very high percentage of people had visited at least one “fake news” website. On the reassuring side, we also found that “fake news” comprises only a very small share of the news-related websites people visit online. We find very strong evidence for a selective exposure explanation, where people are visiting content that matches their ideological preferences. We also show that social media played a key role in how people were exposed to “fake news.” We were also successful in identifying one way to combat the spread of “fake news” through a digital media literacy intervention. We found that a digital media literacy intervention increased people’s ability to better discern between mainstream “real” news and untrustworthy “fake” news. We also have evidence that the effect of this intervention persists, though the effect decreases over time. There is one important caveat. Our intervention increased skepticism in both mainstream and untrustworthy news, but did so much more “fake news.” While the intervention works, future research should focus on how to increase discernment without also increasing skepticism towards all types of content.On the topic of vaccination, we focused on what factors affected people’s willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine. We found that the predicted efficacy and the likelihood of side-effects were particularly important considerations. We also found that some factors mattered very little – such as the underlying vaccine technology (e.g. mRNA). In terms of understanding vaccine attitudes and behaviors at a societal level, we were able to provide good evidence that aggregated survey data at the regional level in Europe that measure vaccine attitudes can effectively explain vaccination uptake, validating an important tool for public health officials in responding to public health threats. Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far) The DEBUNKER project has progressed beyond the state of the art in several key ways. First, we have extending the state of the art by amassing a significant amount of work validating the effectiveness of corrections and fact-checking.Second, we have extended the state of the art by better understanding factors that are associated with holding misperceptions. A companion component of this itself has extended the state of the art by developing a concise survey measure for measuring anti-elite worldviews. This measure has been validated by another research team in 24 countries.Third, we have conducted some of the most extensive work to date on the topic of “fake news.” We have been able to estimate levels of “fake news” consumption, and to examine what factors are associated with consuming untrustworthy content about politics (and other topics). Importantly, we have also been able to validate one approach to addressing the problem of “fake news” – digital media literacy. Fourth, our work on “fake news” has also extended the state of the art methodologically through the use of computational social science. Our work has been a leading pioneer in combining survey responses with digital trace date (where people consent to install an app that lets us see what websites they visit). Fifth, we have extended the state of the art in in understanding vaccine attitudes and behaviors. Over the course of the project, our scientific studies have won a number of award and honors, including the Rebecca Morton best article award, the Paul Lazarsfeld best paper award, and honorable mention for the Walter Lippman best article award. Fake news consumption by media diet (Figure 2 from Guess, Nyhan, and Reifler 2020)
