Periodic Reporting for period 4 - IFAMID (Institutional Family Demography)
Reporting period: 2021-04-01 to 2022-03-31
IFAMID presented a new framework for the analysis of family demography. Building on sociology and political science, it argued that trends in family formation (e.g. fertility) only in part derives from broad global forces (e.g. new technology, expansion in education, broad changes in attitudes and values and secularization). Equally important to understand demographic trends, is to analyze what happens when these global forces meet local social norms and rigid institutional structures. The framework is consistent with the view that as global forces spread across societies, those forces will create losers and winners - depending on the features of those societies. These societal features will either be conducive to "positive" trends, or they can hold back progress - if those features do not cohere with the global forces.
Why is this important? Other than providing a new understanding of demographic trends, the insights from this project matter directly for policy making. An optimal policy design need to take into account those cultural and institutional features, which may otherwise hamper the effectiveness of the very policy proposed. As such, this project offered a new perspective on policy design.
The objectives of this project was first to demonstrate the way cultural and institutional rigidity matter for demographic trends. Following this statement, the second objective was to recognize that there is no single over encompassing feature that matter for all demographic trends of all societies. The nature of those cultural traits may very well differ across societies, but yet lead to similar outcomes and trends. Consequently, an important objective of this project is to investigate which type of cultural trait matter for explaining demographic trends across a broad specter of outcomes and societies. Finally, global forces also comes in different forms. Expansion in education is taking place on a broad scale across most societies. Higher education among women, is the strongest predictor of fertility decline. But, as education expands, it interacts with societal norms and culture, meaning that in some societies education appears to bring fertility almost a halt, whereas other societies managed to maintain high fertility. The reason behind these diverging trends comes about because those societies differ from a cultural perspective, where certain cultural traits is conducive of high female education and high fertility - other are not.
Why is this important? Other than providing a new understanding of demographic trends, the insights from this project matter directly for policy making. An optimal policy design need to take into account those cultural and institutional features, which may otherwise hamper the effectiveness of the very policy proposed. As such, this project offered a new perspective on policy design.
The objectives of this project was first to demonstrate the way cultural and institutional rigidity matter for demographic trends. Following this statement, the second objective was to recognize that there is no single over encompassing feature that matter for all demographic trends of all societies. The nature of those cultural traits may very well differ across societies, but yet lead to similar outcomes and trends. Consequently, an important objective of this project is to investigate which type of cultural trait matter for explaining demographic trends across a broad specter of outcomes and societies. Finally, global forces also comes in different forms. Expansion in education is taking place on a broad scale across most societies. Higher education among women, is the strongest predictor of fertility decline. But, as education expands, it interacts with societal norms and culture, meaning that in some societies education appears to bring fertility almost a halt, whereas other societies managed to maintain high fertility. The reason behind these diverging trends comes about because those societies differ from a cultural perspective, where certain cultural traits is conducive of high female education and high fertility - other are not.
The IFAMID team worked closely with the Global Family Change project lead by Hans-Peter Kohler (University of Pennsylvania), and did so to construct a unified framework that harmonizes sub-national regions for all its 300 plus DHS surveys. We were able to match variables from other external data sources, such as the barometer surveys, to the DHS surveys. This was a major contribution where the team made the technical script publicly available. The implication is that information from other data sources can be easily merged, but importantly, it can be done so at level of sub-national regions. This is a significant benefit for statistical analysis, since with this data source we can assess variation within country, and as surveys have been repeated over time, we can control for fixed country and regional effects. To exemplify, with this data, we estimated the effects of corruption, as derived from the Afro-barometer survey, on individuals’ contraceptive behaviour. Whereas corruption is clearly detrimental for the take-up of modern contraception, we also find that it has important implications for social inequality. In the realm of this project, we also developed ways of matching surveys by using geocoded locations. For instance, respondents in the DHS surveys are geocoded, and in several applications we matched this code with all Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) from China. In this way, we are able to get unprecedented precision of the effect of Chinese FDI on demographic behaviour and trends.
The Trustlab project as described in previous reports, successfully implemented, for the first time, a representative sample of incentivized trust games. It showed that otherwise assumed mechanisms, are debatable. The survey provided new insights to the North-South divide in Italy of economic progress. It also integrated measures of fertility intentions, and thereby was the first to establish the triangular relationship between trust, uncertainty and resilience, and it's relationship with reported fertility intentions.
The final part of IFAMID implemented the Family Goals Study, a comparative survey across key countries to establish cultural differences in people's assessment of the meaning of the family. It touches on the family as a fundamental concept and explores differences across cultures. We find that the family is very much a universal concept and that people across cultures share common views about what makes a family successful. However, there are important differences. The study was based on a conjoint analysis which is a novelty in demographic analysis and shows promise for how one can approach comparative demography.
The Trustlab project as described in previous reports, successfully implemented, for the first time, a representative sample of incentivized trust games. It showed that otherwise assumed mechanisms, are debatable. The survey provided new insights to the North-South divide in Italy of economic progress. It also integrated measures of fertility intentions, and thereby was the first to establish the triangular relationship between trust, uncertainty and resilience, and it's relationship with reported fertility intentions.
The final part of IFAMID implemented the Family Goals Study, a comparative survey across key countries to establish cultural differences in people's assessment of the meaning of the family. It touches on the family as a fundamental concept and explores differences across cultures. We find that the family is very much a universal concept and that people across cultures share common views about what makes a family successful. However, there are important differences. The study was based on a conjoint analysis which is a novelty in demographic analysis and shows promise for how one can approach comparative demography.
Up until this project, the role of culture in demographic analysis was limited to the idea that there were inter-generational persistence in demographic outcomes. In highly developed countries, such patterns were reflected by inter-generational correlation in fertility or other family behaviors - such as divorce. In developing countries, the role of culture was often invoked in order to explain persistently high fertility levels. But IFAMID expands the role of culture by recognizing that societal characteristics are also driven by cultural rigidities, yet at the same time, the characteristics of those societies, are themselves used to explain demographic difference. This means that IFAMID introduced a comprehensive understanding of what culture means for understanding demographic trends.