Descrizione del progetto
Eliminare l’eccessiva fiducia nel processo decisionale collettivo
L’effetto dell’eccessiva fiducia è un pregiudizio ben consolidato in cui la fiducia soggettiva di una persona nei propri giudizi è verosimilmente maggiore dell’accuratezza oggettiva di tali giudizi, specialmente quando la fiducia è relativamente elevata. Questo pregiudizio è pervasivo, costoso e la causa principale di molti fallimenti umani. I precedenti tentativi falliti di ridurre l’eccessiva fiducia hanno puntato alle decisioni individuali. Il progetto rid-O, finanziato dall’UE, si propone di ridurre questo pregiudizio del processo decisionale a livello sociale determinando i processi mentali, neurali e sociali alla base dell’eccessiva fiducia. Il progetto si concentra su tre forme principali di decisioni sociali, ma intende sviluppare un nuovo intervento causale che crei consenso.
Obiettivo
“What would I remove if I had a magic wand? Overconfidence” Daniel Kahneman’s famous fairy-tale wish (The Guardian 18 Jul 15) conveyed a deeply seated pessimism in cognitive scientists that overconfidence is hardwired into human cognition. This bias is pervasive, costly and the root cause of many human failures. Previous failed attempts at reducing overconfidence targeted individual decisions. I propose to reduce this bias at social level of decision making by determining the underlying mental, neural and social processes involved in overconfidence and testing these models by causal interventions. I focus on 3 common forms of social decisions.
1.In honest communication of uncertainty (e.g. 2 doctors disagreeing over a diagnosis), overconfidence impairs joint decisions. Combining computational analysis of behavior and brain response, I develop a real-time feedback loop that allows each disagreeing agent to weight her opinion by an individually-tailored signature of her own uncertainty, freeing joint decisions from overconfidence.
2.Focusing on advising and consulting, I use a novel laboratory model (i.e. Advising Game) to develop a theoretical and empirical understanding of overconfidence in the presence of conflict of interest to understand the mental and neural processes underlying strategic manipulation of others. Plus, by connecting the social use of overconfidence to self-esteem and self-worth, I translate this research to a Mental Health application looking at social dysfunctions in Depression.
3.Overconfidence impairs group processes (e.g. a panel selecting among grants) by promoting herding (blindly following others) and polarization to extreme viewpoints. Inspired by a recent discovery from my lab, I develop a novel causal intervention that puts together seeking consensus within each group and aggregating consensus opinions across groups to remove herding and polarization.
Collective decisions can be made better and rid-O could help this wish come true.
Campo scientifico
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
ERC-COG - Consolidator GrantIstituzione ospitante
80539 Muenchen
Germania