Project description
Models of prediction for Earth system's tipping points
The Earth has gone through abrupt transitions through its history, but the underlying mechanisms are still not fully understood, nor can current models simulate past abrupt transitions realistically. The TiPES project will focus on the urgent need to examine the tipping points at which subsystems of the Earth have changed, improve the modelling of abrupt transitions better, and provide an estimate of stability of desirable states. TiPES will therefore contribute to better prediction of possible future abrupt changes caused by anthropogenic global warming, clarify what crossing the tipping points means socioeconomically, and help policymakers plan strategies to create safe operating spaces for humanity.
Objective
There is rising concern that several subsystems of the Earth may respond highly nonlinearly at critical future levels of anthropogenic forcing; these levels have recently been associated with tipping points (TPs). It is paramount to identify safe operating spaces for humanity and the planet in terms of these critical forcing levels, in order to prevent harmful transitions to alternative, undesirable states of the Earth system. The mechanisms leading to such abrupt transitions are only partly understood, and further research in this regard is urgently needed. State-of-art Earth System Models appear to respond too smoothly at TPs and have difficulties in simulating abrupt transitions that occurred in the planet’s history. TiPES will address these problems from several angles: 1. The project will identify subsystems that may exhibit abrupt transitions, and couplings between them, by focussing on paleoclimatic records and abrupt transitions therein. Novel methods to detect Early Warning Signals of forthcoming TPs, and to make skilful predictions on their basis, will be developed. 2. The potential shortcomings of models in representing TPs will be evaluated; in particular, TiPES will investigate how Bayesian calibration techniques can help enable these models to simulate past abrupt transitions. 3. TiPES will develop a generalized theory of climate sensitivity that accounts for the presence of TPs and feedbacks across various time scales. 4. To define safe operating spaces. TiPES will focus on dynamical system theory and on global stability notions for non-autonomous systems in order to estimate the stability of desirable states. 5. The results obtained by the project will be communicated to policy makers in a manner that facilitates decisions and their implementation. TiPES will develop formal approaches to define the socioeconomic risks of crossing TPs, and to derive decision strategies to keep anthropogenic forcing below levels where abrupt transitions may occur.
Fields of science
Keywords
Programme(s)
Funding Scheme
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinator
1165 Kobenhavn
Denmark
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Participants (19)
EX4 4QJ Exeter
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14473 Potsdam
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28040 Madrid
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RG6 6AH Reading
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3012 Bern
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3584 CS Utrecht
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SN2 1FL Swindon
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1348 Louvain La Neuve
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80333 Muenchen
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00185 Roma
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75230 Paris
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Legal entity other than a subcontractor which is affiliated or legally linked to a participant. The entity carries out work under the conditions laid down in the Grant Agreement, supplies goods or provides services for the action, but did not sign the Grant Agreement. A third party abides by the rules applicable to its related participant under the Grant Agreement with regard to eligibility of costs and control of expenditure.
75794 Paris
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9019 Tromso
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4200 465 Porto
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BS8 1QU Bristol
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1081 HV Amsterdam
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EX1 3PB Exeter
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00196 Roma
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The organization defined itself as SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) at the time the Grant Agreement was signed.
2200 Copenhagen
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The organization defined itself as SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) at the time the Grant Agreement was signed.