Tipping Points in the Earth System

Rezultaty

Website launch with public part for outreach and internal part for communication among partners and transparent consortium administration, setup appropriate software solution for webinars, make plan for delegating seminar planning and appointment of organizers and moderators. Webside will be continuous developed throughout the project lifetime (Task 8.4).

TiPES website

A website will be created by the project management. It will contain material for all addressees identified in the communication plan. A special focus will be on scientific material, briefs, and fact sheets addressed at policymakers. The website will also host publications and data for public use (Task 7.3)

D1.1: Open-access proxy data repository of tipping elements in past climates

We will provide a publically available online data repository containing available proxy records that evidence the temporal behavior of tipping elements in past climates. This repository will be accessible from the TiPES website, and linked with existing repositories such as Pangaea. The most accurate age models will be published alongside the respective records, and wherever possible, marker-based synchronizations between the different records will be provided (Task 1.1).

Data management plan
Data management plan evaluation

Linked to Task 83

State-dependence and spatial patterns of feedbacks

A review report will be compiled during the first year focusing on feedbacks in the climate system that will be addressed by TiPES Feedbacks will include those with an impact on the global mean temperature and those that may exhibit specific spatial patterns Task 41

Spatial patterns of the interrelations between different Tipping Elements

A report will be submitted on the spatial interaction patterns between the different tipping elements of the earth system that are evidenced in paleoclimatic records On this basis an assessment of cascading versus stabilizing effects of tippingelement interactions will be delivered Task 13

Mid-term report from scientific Advisory Board

Linked to Task 82

Tipping point report

A review report will be compiled during the first year derived from an expert public meeting focusing on tipping points that are addressed in TiPES It will form the basis for the first policy briefs and fact sheets produced by TiPES The document will be updated during TiPES M30 Task 72

Indian summer monsoon projections under regional and global forcings

Assessment report of the future Indian summer monsoon response to regional and global forcing scenarios based on a hierarchy of climate models This will include the definition of safe operating spaces excluding future dangerous conditions in the hydroclimatology of the region Task 33

Observable EWSs for AMOC collapse, suitable for use in a changing background climate

Report summarising studies with lowdimensional climate models and AOGCMs in which AMOC thresholds are naturally passed or artificially induced while the underlying climate is changing according to plausible IPCC scenarios The work will identify conditions under which the likelihood of tipping is increased early warning indicators and how these conditions depend on the magnitude and rate of underlying climate change Task 31

Communication plan

A communication plan will be developed that identifies the adressees in academia society and decision makers in the partner countries and the lists the communication instruments that the project will utilize at the level of partners workpagages and the project as a whole The plan will be circulated among the project partners and then published on the www and reviewed M30 Task 71

Domain-specific-language with basic notions about Tipping Points

With annotations examples of usage and relations and implementation in Idris It will be provided as a report containing the dictionary of notions formalised such as being compatible with computer language Idris or similar supported by a code library The report intends to function as a draft for a publication which can be circulated among partners for further feedback Task 61

Course on functional languages and to dependently typed languages

The course will be delivered by N. Botta at UCL after the recruitment is finalised. It takes the form of seminars with either slide or syllabus support (Task 6.1).

Modelling protocol for DO events for CMIP-PMIP

We will write suggested DO-modelling protocol, and liaise with CMIP-PMIP steering committee, to put appropriate protocol on the CMIP-PMIP website. This protocol will be published in a peer reviewed paper (T2.1).

Publikacje

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Autorzy: Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Opublikowane w: Geosci. Model Dev., Numer 6, 2023, Strona(/y) 1975–1995, ISSN 1991-959X
Wydawca: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023

Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3

Autorzy: Virna L. Meccia, Ramón Fuentes-Franco, Paolo Davini, Katinka Bellomo, Federico Fabiano, Shuting Yang and Jost von Hardenberg
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 14320894, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Wydawca: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06534-4

Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes.

Autorzy: Christian Kuehn; Leonhard Horstmeyer
Opublikowane w: Phys. Rev. E, Numer 22, 2019, ISSN 1536-6065
Wydawca: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.101.022305

Climate impacts of a substantial weakening of the AMOC over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model

Autorzy: Katinka Bellomo, Virna L. Meccia, Roberta D’Agostino, Federico Fabiano, Sarah M. Larson, Jost von Hardenberg & Susanna Corti
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 1432-0894
Wydawca: Copenicus
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2

Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3

Autorzy: Federico Fabiano, Paolo Davini, Virna Meccia, Giuseppe Zappa, Alessio Bellucci, Valerio Lembo, Katinka Bellomo, and Susanna Corti
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer [accepted], 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copenicus
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2023-15

An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years

Autorzy: Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan, Anna Joy Drury, Diederik Liebrand, Claudia Agnini, Eleni Anagnostou, James S. K. Barnet, Steven M. Bohaty, David De Vleeschouwer, Fabio Florindo, Thomas Frederichs, David A. Hodell, Ann E. Holbourn, Dick Kroon, Vittoria Lauretano, Kate Littler, Lucas J. Lourens, Mitchell Lyle, Heiko Pälike, Ursula Röhl, Jun Tian, Roy H. Wilkens, Paul A. Wilson, James C. Zachos
Opublikowane w: Science, Numer 369/6509, 2020, Strona(/y) 1383-1387, ISSN 0036-8075
Wydawca: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba6853

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Autorzy: Peter D. Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 14, 2023, Strona(/y) 4254, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Autorzy: Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil and Thomas F Stocker
Opublikowane w: Environ. Res. Lett., Numer 17, 9, 2022, Strona(/y) 093006, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8944

The coupled ice sheet-Earth system model Bern3D v3. 0

Autorzy: Frerk Pöppelmeier, Fortunat Joos, and Thomas F. Stocker
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, 2023, Strona(/y) 1-39, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0104.1

Robustness of competing climatic states

Autorzy: Ragon, Charline; Lembo, Valerio; Lucarini, Valerio; Vérard, Christian; Kasparian, Jérôme; Brunetti, Maura
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 35(7), 2022, Strona(/y) 1-59, ISSN 1520-0442
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0148.1

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation impacts on water isotope records during the Last Interglacial

Autorzy: Sentia Goursaud, Max Holloway, Louise Sime, Eric Wolff, Paul Valdes, Eric J. Steig, Andrew Pauling
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091412

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

Autorzy: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, Martin Rypdal
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 11/2, 2020, Strona(/y) 329-345, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-329-2020

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Autorzy: Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer 11/12, 2021, ISSN 1758-6798
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4

Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers

Autorzy: Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Opublikowane w: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numer 3, 2022, Strona(/y) 1037–1062, ISSN 2698-4016
Wydawca: Göttingen Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022

Sea-ice-free Arctic during the Last Interglacial supports fast future loss

Autorzy: Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, David Schröeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Erica Rosenblum, Mark Ringer, Jeff Ridley, Danny Feltham, Cecilia Bitz, Eric J. Steig, Eric Wolff, Julienne Stroeve, Alistair Sellar
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, Numer 10/10, 2020, Strona(/y) 928-932, ISSN 1758-678X
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0865-2

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Autorzy: Swierczek-Jereczek, J., Montoya, M., Robinson, A., Alvarez-Solas, J., & Blasco, J
Opublikowane w: Scientific Reports, Numer 13, 2023, Strona(/y) 2104, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-28771-1

Response and Sensitivity Using Markov Chains

Autorzy: Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Valerio Lucarini
Opublikowane w: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numer 179/5-6, 2020, Strona(/y) 1572-1593, ISSN 0022-4715
Wydawca: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10955-020-02504-4

East Greenland ice core dust record reveals timing of Greenland ice sheet advance and retreat

Autorzy: Paul Vallelonga; Aslak Grinsted; Alejandra Borunda; Alejandra Borunda; Steven L. Goldstein; Steven L. Goldstein; Thomas Blunier; Marius Simonsen; Mai Winstrup; Diana Vladimirova; Helle Astrid Kjær; Bo M Vinther; Gisela Winckler; Gisela Winckler; Barbara Delmonte; Robert Frei; Anders Svensson; Giovanni Baccolo; Todd Sowers
Opublikowane w: Nature communications, Numer 30, 2019, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12546-2

Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900−2018

Autorzy: Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Opublikowane w: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numer 116/48, 2019, Strona(/y) 23942-23946, ISSN 0027-8424
Wydawca: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912277116

Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison

Autorzy: Forough Hassanibesheli, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths
Opublikowane w: New Journal of Physics, Numer 22/7, 2020, Strona(/y) 073053, ISSN 1367-2630
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5

Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland

Autorzy: Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Forough Hassanibesheli, Pedro G. Lind, Dirk Witthaut, and Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 14.3, 2023, Strona(/y) 593-607, ISSN 2190-4979
Wydawca: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023

Elliptic and Parabolic Boundary Value Problems in Weighted Function Spaces

Autorzy: Hummel, Felix; Lindemulder, Nick
Opublikowane w: Potential Analysis, Numer 52, 2021, ISSN 1572-929X
Wydawca: Springer Nature B.V.
DOI: 10.1007/s11118-021-09929-w

Resilience of dynamical systems

Autorzy: Hana Krakovská, Christian Kuehn and Iacopo P. Longo
Opublikowane w: European Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2023, Strona(/y) 1-46, ISSN 1469-4425
Wydawca: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0956792523000141

Canadian forest fires, Icelandic volcanoes and increased local dust observed in six shallow Greenland firn cores

Autorzy: Helle Astrid Kjær, Patrick Zens, Samuel Black, Kasper Holst Lund, Anders Svensson, and Paul Vallelonga
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past, Numer 18149324, 2022, Strona(/y) 2211-2230, ISSN 1814-9324
Wydawca: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2211-2022

Stabilization of cyclic processes by slowly varying forcing

Autorzy: J. Newman; M. Lucas; A. Stefanovska
Opublikowane w: Chaos, Numer 31(12), 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Wydawca: American Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0066641

Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation

Autorzy: Peter Ashwin; Jennifer Creaser; Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova
Opublikowane w: Crossref, Numer 24, 2023, ISSN 0031-9007
Wydawca: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.014213

Main controls on the stable carbon isotope composition of speleothems

Autorzy: Jens Fohlmeister, Ny Riavo G. Voarintsoa, Franziska A. Lechleitner, Meighan Boyd, Susanne Brandtstätter, Matthew J. Jacobson, Jessica L. Oster
Opublikowane w: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Numer 279, 2020, Strona(/y) 67-87, ISSN 0016-7037
Wydawca: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.gca.2020.03.042

Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world

Autorzy: Robbin Bastiaansen, Henk A Dijkstra, Anna S von der Heydt
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research letters, Numer 17 (4), 2022, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8

Simulating the Laurentide Ice Sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum

Autorzy: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Javier Blasco, Marisa Montoya, & Alexander Robinson
Opublikowane w: The Cryosphere, Numer 17, 2023, Strona(/y) 2139–2156, ISSN 1994-0424
Wydawca: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/tc-17-2139-2023

A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events

Autorzy: Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer 54/1-2, 2020, Strona(/y) 575-598, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05018-2

Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records

Autorzy: Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen, Keno Riechers,Martin Wibe Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: Climate of the past, Numer 18, 6, 2022, Strona(/y) 1275-1294, ISSN 1814-9332
Wydawca: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022

An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures

Autorzy: Catrin Ciemer, Lars Rehm, Jürgen Kurths, Reik V Donner, Ricarda Winkelmann, Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 15/9, 2020, Strona(/y) 094087, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9cff

Towards neural Earth system modelling by integrating artificial intelligence in Earth system science

Autorzy: Christopher Irrgang; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Maike Sonnewald; Elizabeth A. Barnes; Christopher Kadow; Joanna Staneva; Jan Saynisch-Wagner
Opublikowane w: Nature Machine Intelligence, Numer 3, 2021, ISSN 2522-5839
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s42256-021-00374-3

Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

Autorzy: Ben-Yami, Maya ; Skiba, Vanessa ; Bathiany, Sebastian ; Boers, Niklas
Opublikowane w: Nature communications, Numer 14, 2023, Strona(/y) 8344, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44046-9

On the correctness of monadic backward induction

Autorzy: Brede, Nuria; Botta, Nicola
Opublikowane w: Journal of Functional Programming, Numer 31, 2021, ISSN 1469-7653
Wydawca: online
DOI: 10.1017/s0956796821000228

Significance of uncertain phasing between the onsets of stadial–interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies

Autorzy: Keno Riechers Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: Climate of the past, 2021, ISSN 1814-9332
Wydawca: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-1751-2021

Climate-induced speleothem radiocarbon variability on Socotra Island from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas

Autorzy: Steffen Therre, Jens Fohlmeister, Dominik Fleitmann, Albert Matter, Stephen J. Burns, Jennifer Arps, Andrea Schröder-Ritzrau, Ronny Friedrich, Norbert Frank
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past, Numer 16/1, 2020, Strona(/y) 409-421, ISSN 1814-9332
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-409-2020

Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC

Autorzy: L. C. Jackson, R. A. Wood
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 33/16, 2020, Strona(/y) 7027-7044, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0034.1

Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling

Autorzy: Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: Geoscientific Model Development, Numer 16,11, 2023, Strona(/y) 3123–3135, ISSN 1991-9603
Wydawca: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023

Overturning Pathways Control AMOC Weakening in CMIP6 Models

Autorzy: Jonathan A. Baker, Michael J. Bell, Laura C. Jackson, Richard Renshaw, Geoffrey K. Vallis, Andrew J. Watson, Richard A. Wood
Opublikowane w: geophysical Research Letters, Numer 50, 14, 2023, Strona(/y) e2023GL103381, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103381

Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems

Autorzy: Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Maximilian Gelbrecht; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Niklas Boers; Juergen Kurths; Juergen Kurths
Opublikowane w: New Journal of Physics, Numer 12, 2021, ISSN 1367-2630
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.17169/refubium-30839

Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene

Autorzy: Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past, Numer 20,1, 2024, Strona(/y) 77-90, ISSN 1814-9332
Wydawca: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
DOI: 10.5194/cp-20-77-2024

Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model

Autorzy: Valerio Lucarini, Larissa Serdukova, and Georgios Margazoglou
Opublikowane w: Nonlin. Processes Geophys., Numer 16077946, 2022, Strona(/y) 183-205, ISSN 1607-7946
Wydawca: Copenicus Gesellschaft
DOI: 10.5194/npg-29-183-2022

Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm

Autorzy: Matteo Cini, Giuseppe Zappa, Francesco Ragone & Susanna Corti
Opublikowane w: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numer 7 (31), 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00568-7

A multi-model CMIP6-PMIP4 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: sea ice data compilation and model differences

Autorzy: Masa Kageyama, Louise C. Sime, Marie Sicard, Maria-Vittoria Guarino, Anne de Vernal, Ruediger Stein, David Schroeder, Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecilia Bitz, Pascale Braconnot, Esther C. Brady, Jian Cao, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Danny Feltham, Chuncheng Guo, Allegra N. LeGrande, Gerrit Lohmann, Katrin J. Meissner, Laurie Menviel, Polina Morozova, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-B
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past, Numer 17/1, 2021, Strona(/y) 37-62, ISSN 1814-9332
Wydawca: European geosciences union
DOI: 10.5194/cp-17-37-2021

Early-warning signals for Cenozoic climate transitions

Autorzy: Christopher Boettner, Georg Klinghammer, Niklas Boers, Thomas Westerhold, Norbert Marwan,
Opublikowane w: Quaternary Science Reviews, Numer 270, 2021, ISSN 0277-3791
Wydawca: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107177

The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations

Autorzy: Maria Vittoria Guarino, Louise C. Sime, Rachel Diamond, Jeff Ridley, and David Schroeder
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past, Numer 19, 2023, Strona(/y) 865–881, ISSN 1814-9324
Wydawca: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-865-2023

Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations

Autorzy: Keno Riechers, Takahito Mitsui, Niklas Boers, and Michael Ghil
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past, Numer 18, 2022, Strona(/y) 863-893, ISSN 1814-9324
Wydawca: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022

On some aspects of the response to stochastic and deterministic forcings

Autorzy: Gutiérrez, Manuel Santos, and Valerio Lucarini.
Opublikowane w: Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, Numer 55.42, 2022, Strona(/y) 425002, ISSN 1751-8121
Wydawca: IOPScience
DOI: 10.1088/1751-8121/ac90fd

"""Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits"

Autorzy: Wieczorek, Sebastian, Chun Xie, and Peter Ashwin.
Opublikowane w: Nonlinearity, Numer 36.6, 2023, Strona(/y) 3238, ISSN 1361-6544
Wydawca: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/accb37

Warning signs for non-Markovian bifurcations: colour blindness and scaling laws

Autorzy: Kuehn, Christian; Lux, Kerstin; Neamtu, Alexandra
Opublikowane w: Proceedings of the Royal Academy A, Numer 8/12, 2022, ISSN 1471-2946
Wydawca: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rspa.2021.0740

The Pleistocene Glacial Cycles and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability

Autorzy: Peter Ditelvsen
Opublikowane w: Atmosphere-Ocean, Numer 60:3-4, 2022, Strona(/y) 233-244, ISSN 1480-9214
Wydawca: Taylor and Francis Ltd.
DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2022.2077172

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with echo state networks.

Autorzy: Mitsui, T., Boers, N.
Opublikowane w: Environmental research letters, Numer 16, 2021, Strona(/y) 074024, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0acb

Ice core evidence for major volcanic eruptions at the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events

Autorzy: Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past, Numer 18, 2022, Strona(/y) 2021-2043, ISSN 1814-9332
Wydawca: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/cp-18-2021-2022

Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions

Autorzy: Javier Blasco, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya
Opublikowane w: The Cryosphere, Numer 15/1, 2021, Strona(/y) 215-231, ISSN 1994-0424
Wydawca: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-215-2021

Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation

Autorzy: Brooke Snoll, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Paul J. Valdes, Amanda C. Maycock, Lauren J. Gregoire
Opublikowane w: Climate dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06196-2

Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action

Autorzy: Marina Martínez Montero, Nuria Brede, Victor Couplet, Michel Crucifix, Nicola Botta, Claudia Wienerse
Opublikowane w: Oxford open climate change, 2024, Strona(/y) kgae004, ISSN 2634-4068
Wydawca: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae004

Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios

Autorzy: Höning, Dennis, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2129

Role of mineral dust in the nitrate preservation during the glacial period: Insights from the RICE ice core

Autorzy: Abhijith U.Venugopala Nancy A.N.Bertler Rebecca L.Pyne Helle A.Kjær V. Holly L.Winton Paul A.Mayewski Giuseppe Cortesea
Opublikowane w: Global and Planetary change, 2022, ISSN 0921-8181
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103745

Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations

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Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 14, 6, 2023, Strona(/y) 1277–1294, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Göttingen Copernicus Publ.
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Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points

Autorzy: Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt
Opublikowane w: Journal of Statistical Physics, Numer 179/5-6, 2020, Strona(/y) 1531-1552, ISSN 0022-4715
Wydawca: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers
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Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise

Autorzy: J. Sutter, A. Jones, T. L. Frölicher, C. Wirths & T. F. Stocker
Opublikowane w: Nature Climate Change, 2023, ISSN 1758-678X
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
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Detection of abrupt changes in East Asian monsoon from Chinese loess and speleothem records

Autorzy: Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Youbin Sun
Opublikowane w: Global and Planetary Change, Numer 227, 2023, Strona(/y) 104154, ISSN 0921-8181
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
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The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

Autorzy: Nils Bochow and Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: science advances, Numer 9 (40), 2023, ISSN 2375-2548
Wydawca: Science Advances
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add9973

Slow manifolds for infinite-dimensional evolution equations

Autorzy: Felix Hummel and Chrsitian Kuehn
Opublikowane w: Commentarii Mathematici Helvetici, Numer 14208946, 2022, Strona(/y) 61-132, ISSN 1420-8946
Wydawca: Swiss Mathematical Society
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Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems

Autorzy: Umberto Maria Tomasini, Valerio Lucarini
Opublikowane w: The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 2021, ISSN 1951-6355
Wydawca: EDP Sciences
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Model-Data Comparison of Antarctic Winter Sea-Ice Extent and Southern Ocean Sea-Surface Temperatures During Marine Isotope Stage 5e

Autorzy: M. Chadwick, L. C. Sime, C. S. Allen, M.-V. Guarino
Opublikowane w: Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Numer 38, 6, 2023, Strona(/y) e2022PA004600, ISSN 2572-4525
Wydawca: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions

Autorzy: Valerio Lucarini, Tamás Bódai
Opublikowane w: Nonlinearity, Numer 33/9, 2020, Strona(/y) R59-R92, ISSN 0951-7715
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
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Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction

Autorzy: Simon L. L. Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Pablo Ortega, Guillaume Gastineau, Juliette Mignot, Gerard McCarthy, Myriam Khodri
Opublikowane w: Nature communications, Numer 5176, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
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Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

Autorzy: Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lucarini; Valerio Lembo; Francesco Ragone
Opublikowane w: Scientific Reports, Vol 10, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2020), Numer 18, 2020, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
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Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

Autorzy: Johannes Lohmann; Henk A. Dijkstra; Markus Jochum; Valerio Lucarini; Peter D. Ditlevsen
Opublikowane w: SCIENCE ADVANCES, Numer 10, 12, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Wydawca: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol

Autorzy: Irene Malmierca-Vallet, Louise C. Sime, and the D–O community members
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past, Numer 19, 2023, Strona(/y) 915–942, ISSN 1814-9324
Wydawca: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates

Autorzy: Witold Bagniewski, Michael Ghil & Denis-Didier Rousseau
Opublikowane w: Sci Rep, Numer 13, 2023, Strona(/y) 4472, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
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Reconstructing Historical Climate Fields With Deep Learning

Autorzy: Nils Bochow, Anna Poltronieri, Martin Rypdal, Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: arXiv
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Persistent synchronization of heterogeneous networks with time-dependent linear diffusive coupling

Autorzy: Jardón-Kojakhmetov, Hildeberto ; Kuehn, Christian ; Longo, Iacopo P.
Opublikowane w: ArXiv, Numer [prerint], 2023
Wydawca: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2305.05747

Anticipating critical transitions in multi-dimensional systems driven by time- and state-dependent noise

Autorzy: Andreas Morr, Keno Riechers, Leonardo Rydin Gorjão, Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: ArXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.16773

Tipping Point Detection and Early-Warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Autorzy: Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Josh E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Opublikowane w: EGUSphere, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Copenicus
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Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Kolmogorov Modes, and Nonlinear Fingerprints

Autorzy: Valerio Lucarini, Mickaël Chekroun
Opublikowane w: arXiV, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2212.02628

The influence of present-day regional surface mass balance uncertainties on the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Autorzy: Christian Wirths, Johannes Sutter, and Thomas Stocker
Opublikowane w: EGUsphere, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2233

Spatial correlation increase in single-sensor satellite data reveals loss of Amazon rainforest resilience

Autorzy: Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.18540

The Temporal Phasing of Rapid Dansgaard–Oeschger Warming Events Cannot Be Reliably Determined

Autorzy: John Slattery, Louise C. Sime, Francesco Muschitiello, and Keno Riechers
Opublikowane w: Climate of the Past discussions, Numer [in review], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Wydawca: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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Description and validation of the ice sheet model Nix v1.0

Autorzy: Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
Opublikowane w: EGUSphere, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Copenicus
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Types, equations, dimensions and the Pi theorem

Autorzy: Nicola Botta, Patrik Jansson, Guilherme Horta Alvares Da Silva
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Cornell university
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2308.09481

Rainfall Seasonality Dominates Critical Precipitation Threshold for the Amazon Forest in the Lpjml Vegetation Model

Autorzy: NIAN, DA and Bathiany, Sebastian and Sakschewski, Boris and Drüke, Markus and Blaschke, Lana and Ben-Yami, Maya and von Bloh, Werner and Boers, Niklas
Opublikowane w: SSRN, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: SSRN
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Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

Autorzy: Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
Opublikowane w: Erath system Dynamics, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Copenicus Publications
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A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model

Autorzy: Lucy G. Recchia, Valerio Lucarini
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: ArXiV
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2310.15871

Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems

Autorzy: Reyk Börner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Römer, Tobias Grafke, Valerio Lucarini, Ulrike Feudel
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.10231

Crossing planetary boundaries could lead to Hothouse Earth

Autorzy: Erik Chavez, Michael Ghil, Jan Rombouts
Opublikowane w: https://www.researchsquare.com/, Numer [preprint], 2024
Wydawca: https://www.researchsquare.com/
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Internal noise interference in anticipation of tipping points of generic multi-dimensional dynamical systems

Autorzy: Andreas Morr, Niklas Boers and Peter Ashwin
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2311.18597

Dimensional analysis identifies contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions

Autorzy: Tommaso Alberti, Fabio Florindo, Eelco J. Rohling, Valerio Lucarini, Davide Faranda
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: ArXiV
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Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections

Autorzy: Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio, Valerio Lucarini
Opublikowane w: arXiv, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: arXiv
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Climate sensitivity, commitment and abrupt change: toward an ontology for climate tipping point research

Autorzy: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Marina Martínez Montero
Opublikowane w: 2022
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Winter Euro-Atlantic blocking activity less sensitive to climate change than previously evaluated

Autorzy: Simon L. L. Michel, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra
Opublikowane w: ESS Open Archive, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Authorea.com
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Decoupling of δ18O from surface temperature in Antarctica in an ensemble of Historical simulations

Autorzy: Sentia Oger, Louise Sime, and Max Holloway
Opublikowane w: EGUsphere, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: Copenicus
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Deep learning reconstruction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength validates ongoig twenty-first century decline

Autorzy: Simon Michel, Henk Dijkstra, Francesco Guardamagna, Valérian Jacques-Dumas, René van Westen, Anna von der Heydt
Opublikowane w: Research Square, Numer [preprint], 2023
Wydawca: https://www.researchsquare.com/
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A DSL for Monadic Decision Problems, Responsibility under Uncertainty and Tipping Point Notions

Autorzy: Botta, Nicola; Brede, Nuria; Crucifix, Michel; Martínez Montero, Marina
Opublikowane w: 2022
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On the periodicity of free oscillations for a finite ice column

Autorzy: Daniel Moreno, Alexander Robinson, Marisa Montoya, and Jorge Alvarez-Solas
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Antarctic Tipping points triggered by the mid-Pliocene warm climate

Autorzy: Javier Blasco, Ilaria Tabone, Daniel Moreno-Parada, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, Frank Pattyn, and Marisa Montoya
Opublikowane w: Climateof the Past Discussions, Numer [preprint], 2023, ISSN 1814-9324
Wydawca: European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.

Autorzy: Chris A. Boulton
Opublikowane w: Global Change Biology, Numer 7, 2022, ISSN 1354-1013
Wydawca: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
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A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact-Low Likelihood Climate Risks

Autorzy: Richard A. Wood, Michel Crucifix, Timothy M. Lenton, Katharine J. Mach, Crystal Moore, Mark New, Simon Sharpe, Thomas F. Stocker, Rowan T. Sutton
Opublikowane w: Erath's Future, Numer 11, 4, 2023, Strona(/y) e2022EF003369, ISSN 2328-4277
Wydawca: John Wiley & Sons
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Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model

Autorzy: Mehling, Oliver, Reyk Börner, and Valerio Lucarini
Opublikowane w: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Numer 134043, 2023, ISSN 0167-2789
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
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Can the Miocene climate inform the future?

Autorzy: Anna von der Heydt
Opublikowane w: Science, Numer 377, 6601, 2022, Strona(/y) 26-27, ISSN 0036-8075
Wydawca: American Association for the Advancement of Science
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Climate, zoonosis, and interdisciplinarity

Autorzy: Michael Ghil
Opublikowane w: PNAS, Numer 120 (39), 2023, Strona(/y) e2311575120, ISSN 0027-8424
Wydawca: National Academy of Sciences
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Bifurcation Analysis of Systems With Delays: Methods and Their Use in Applications

Autorzy: Bernd Krauskopf and Jan Sieber
Opublikowane w: Controlling Delayed Dynamics. CISM International Centre for Mechanical Sciences, Numer vol 604., 2022, ISBN 978-3-031-01129-0
Wydawca: Springer, Cham.
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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems, and the Climate Sciences

Autorzy: Michael Ghil, Eric Simonnet
Opublikowane w: Mathematical Approach to Climate Change and its Impacts - MAC2I, Numer 38, 2020, Strona(/y) 3-81, ISBN 978-3-030-38668-9
Wydawca: Springer International Publishing
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Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Autorzy: Ogutu, K.B.Z., D’Andrea, F., Groth, A., Ghil, M
Opublikowane w: Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 2022, Strona(/y) 225-287, ISBN 978-3-030-72579-2
Wydawca: Springer, Cham
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An ice-core perspective

Autorzy: Sune Olander Rasmussen
Opublikowane w: Abrupt Climate Change, Numer 1, 2020, ISBN 978-87-93604-86-5
Wydawca: Strandberg publishing

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