Periodic Reporting for period 2 - ChEESE (Centre of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth)
Reporting period: 2020-05-01 to 2022-03-31
1. On explicitly solving problems that, traditionally, have been parameterized because are unaffordable in terms of size, model resolution, complex physical couplings, and huge amounts of data involved.
2. On solving currently affordable problems but with much less computing time. This is critical in scenarios of early warning and emergency management.
3. Introducing a probabilistic framework through a large ensemble of model realizations, model data assimilation, and uncertainty quantification.
SE sciences have significant scientific and socioeconomic implications, including geohazards, hydrocarbon and energy resource exploration, or containment of underground waste and carbon sequestration. From a social point of view, it is important to foster scientific, engineering, and information technology innovation for a better risk management of geohazards. This is relevant to support the preparation of EU policies on risk mitigation and adaptation and assist in the development of civil protection capabilities to protect EU citizens from geohazards.
The Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth (ChEESE; GA No 823844) has run from November 2018 to March 2021. ChEESE has prepared 10 Community flagship codes in the areas of computational seismology, tsunamis, volcanology and magnetohydrodynamics for the present pre-exascale and the upcoming exascale hardware architectures. The flagship applications have been used together with workflows to implement 12 Pilot Demonstrators (PDs) addressing exascale capability and capacity challenges in the area of SE. The 8 PDs reaching a TRL equal or higher than 5 during the second half of the project have also been used to enable and validate services on critical aspects of geohazards such as urgent computing during emergency situations, probabilistic hazard assessment, early warning, and Earth’s subsurface imaging. This has been done in close collaboration with members of the Industry and Users Board (IUB), which have also furnished the appropriate use-cases and requirements to perform 14 test cases and 6 live exercises in which services ran in operational mode. ChEESE has also been very successful in integrating the community around HPC and leveraging the growth of an ecosystem of “child” projects and initiatives that benefit from (and synergize with) the CoE.
● Support to PRACE grants and allocation of HPC resources for pilots (217 M core hours granted)
● Definition of service typologies
● End-users from the IUB have been involved in the co-design of services by defining, in synergy with the ChEESE teams, the appropriate use-cases and requirements for the validation in 14 use cases and 6 user-driven validation exercises
● Faster than real-time tsunami simulation service. The PD2 exploited operationally (TRL=9) by IGN (the Spanish Instituto Geografico Nacional), ARISTOTLE-eENHSP delivering to the European Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC), and the ARISTOTLE tsunami service is integrated in the SPADA (Scientific Products Archiving and Document Assembly) IT platform.
● Urgent computing during La Palma eruption. The PD12 ran operationally (TRL=9) during the eruption. Ensemble-based (scenarios) ash dispersal forecasts ran @MN4 from 19 Nov to 13 Dec 2021 and delivered daily (at 8:00 am LT) to the scientific committee of the PEVOLCA and to the civil protection authorities for real operational decision-making
ChEESE has organized 15 training courses (including 5 PATC). The KPIs for scientific and social impacts of the project are evolving very satisfactorily, and a proposal to organize a European Geosciences Union (EGU) Galileo conference has been granted.
In terms of scientific progress:
● FWI and high-resolution subsurface imaging to model seismic wave propagation at unprecedented high frequencies in complex geological settings (ECC1 and ECC2).
● Seismic hazard studies based upon physically consistent models.
● Automated array-based statistical detection and restoration of seismic slow-earthquakes (ECC15).
● Physical coupling of earthquakes and tsunamis in 3D.
● In magneto-hydrodynamics, investigate the conditions that lead to geomagnetic reversals, and the properties of the magnetic field during the phenomenon (ECC5).
● For volcanic plumes, characterize the microphysics and the non-linear coupling between turbulence scales (ECC7).
● High-resolution volcanic ash dispersal simulations for hazard assessment and operational forecast using data assimilation (ECC8).
● The portal and repository of HPC codes and toolkits coordinated with (and integrated to) EPOS.
In terms of innovative solutions and social impact:
● Establishment of a pan-European urgent computing system (with EuroHPC) including near real-time seismic scenarios (ECC3) and tsunami simulation in the framework of tsunami Early Warning Systems (ECC11).
● Physics-based probabilistic hazard assessment for earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes (ECC4, ECC10, ECC14).
● Probabilistic Tsunami Forecast for early warning and rapid post-event assessment (ECC13).
● Geophysical exploration. Subsurface imaging for identification and management of energy/mineral reservoirs, storage sites, and their monitoring through time.
● Volcanic ash dispersal forecasts at unprecedented resolution (few km) based on satellite data assimilation and ensemble forecast.