Obiettivo
HOMOGENEOUS AIR TEMPERATURE DATA SAMPLES FOR EUROPEAN STATIONS WITH THE LONGEST AVAILABLE RECORDS WILL BE USED TO CONSTRUCT TIME SERIES MODELS. THE TIME SERIES AT EACH STATION MODEL WILL CONSIST OF AN OVERALL MEAN, A SEASONAL COMPONENT AND A "NOISE" TERM WHICH WILL BE REPRESENTED BY AN AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESS. THESE TREND ESTIMATES WILL BE TESTED FOR THEIR STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE. IN THIS WAY, OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF AIR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT VARIOUS EUROPEAN STATIONS WILL BE GIVEN.
AIR TEMPERATURE DATA WILL CONSIST OF MONTHLY MEANS BOTH FROM GROUND LEVEL AND FROM RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS. REGIONAL TRENDS WILL ALSO BE CALCULATED BY GROUPING THE STATIONS IN SIMILAR CLIMATIC REGIMES. THE RESULTS OF THIS ANALYSIS WILL BE COMPARED WITH MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE EXPECTED GREENHOUSE EFFECT DURING THE PERIOD OF STUDY FOR KNOWN CO2 AND OTHER TRACEGASES INCREASING SCENARIOS.
NEXT, EXTREMES OF TEMPERATURES AND RELATED CLIMATIC VARIABLES WILL BE STUDIED SEPARATELY. THE COMPILATION OF EXTREME EVENTS WILL BE EXTENDED BACK TO THE YEAR 1000 AD FROM HISTORICAL SOURCES. THESE SOURCES WILL BE FOUND IN ANCIENT CODICES, MANUSCRIPTS AND TRAVELERS OBSERVATIONS FROM GREECE AND WESTERN EUROPE, ARCHIVED IN PATRIARCHAL INSTITUTE AND MANY DUTCH INSTITUTES. ATTEMPTS WILL BE MADE TO GIVE ESTIMATES OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THESE CLIMATIC EXTREMES, SIMULATE THE PREVALING SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN EUROPE AT THESE EARLY TIMES AND COMPARE THEM WITH EXTREMES IN GREECE AND OTHER EUROPEAN STATIONS OBSERVED DURING THE INSTRUMENTAL ERA. FINALLY, MODERN STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES WILL BE USED TO EVALUATE EXISTING CLIMATIC TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN THE GREEK STATION RECORDS AND THE RECORDS IN OTHER EUROPEAN STATIONS, DURING THE PERIOD FROM THE 1850'S THROUGH TO THE 1980'S.
Campo scientifico
Argomento(i)
Data not availableInvito a presentare proposte
Data not availableMeccanismo di finanziamento
CSC - Cost-sharing contractsCoordinatore
3730 AE DE BILT
Paesi Bassi