Exploitable results
The overall objective of the current Project is to organize and analyze environmental data in order to establish a numerical model tool for the simulation of transport and dilution of radioactive waste and dissolved pollutants in the Kara sea. The research carried out within this Project covers the following sub-objectives: Establishment of a comprehensive environmental database for the Kara sea region, in order to be used to understand the ocean dynamics and governing mechanisms, as well as present and potential radioactive sources of contamination; Understanding the marine environmental conditions and its variability on seasonal and inter-annual basis; Estimation and modeling of the local, meso- and large-scale transport and dilution of pollutants from potential sources located in the Kara sea as well as through the river outflow.
For all scenarios the modeling results show that for instantaneous sources (the deposit locations) a significant and rapid decrease in level of contamination occurs in the first 10-30 days. After 10 days concentrations did not exceed 1% of the initial value, which implies that the mixing with sea water is a very efficient process to dissolve the various radioactive components. For 137Cs and 239,240Pu concentrations will immediately be below Russian standards of the permissible content for the drinking water; only for 90Sr concentrations will remain at a higher level. However, Strontium, which is highly soluble, will be transported away from the source area and hence all instantaneous sources does not represent serious hazard for the Kara sea radioactive contamination, due to the dilution.
Radioactive releases from the deposits along the coast of Novaya Zemlya, pending on the prevailing wind conditions and source location, will reach the Kara Gate and contaminate the Barents Sea waters within 40 to 240 days, after a potential accidental release. A potential release from the Novaya Zemlya trench deposit will pending on the fording conditions only after 80 days reach the Kara Gate, but with a major part of the bottom sedimentation processes too take place in the Kara Sea. Simulation of the radionuclear transport and transformation from the constant sources through the Ob' and Yenisey river discharge indicates higher levels of radioactivity and sedimentation rate than for instantaneous sources. For a source through Ob' mouth the cloud of contaminated water will only after 240 days of simulation leaves the proper Ob' estuary, then moves toward the Novaya Zemlya and splits into two branches (southward and northern directions). For a source through the Yenisey mouth the cloud of contaminated waters will after less than 120 days leave the proper Yenisey estuary and move toward Novaya Zemlya deviating further in the south-west and east directions. The south-western part of the Kara sea remains non-contaminated throughout the entire period of simulation (400 days, using April 1979 forcing conditions). Analysis of the fields of the radionuclear transport and spreading shows that the model is capable to handle various types of radionuclides and with high accuracy and resolution simulate their characteristic processes in water. The current simulations are based on a limited forcing scenarios (wind and oceanographic conditions) and only performed for periods up to 400 days, which cause limitations in the interpretations of the various potential release scenarios.
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