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Observations and modelling of transport and dilution of radioactive waste and dissolved pollutants in the Kara Sea

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Radioactive material is known to exist in several locations on the seafloor, e.g. several deposits in the Kara Sea. However, inventories of the total amount of material, its location and the sealing capacity of the containers are likely to remain rather uncertain for many years, even if large efforts are made in examining historical records of disposal and performing field surveys. Given that radioactive contamination of marine ecosystems and thus also of food production is an issue of concern, response strategies will have to be developed to deal with a perhaps hypothetical situation when a significant leakage occurs in a given location or when unnatural levels of radioactivity are measured in the ocean but the source is unknown. The development of response strategies to deal with such situations will, amongst others, depend on the ability to answer the following questions: if a known source at a given location starts leaking, where will the contaminated water spread and what levels of radioactivity will occur in the seawater? If elevated levels of radioactivity are measured in an area, what is the most likely location of the source, how should further measurements be made in order to locate it as rapidly as possible, and what other areas are likely to be contaminated?

Developing the capability to answer the above questions is by no means sufficient to build a proper response strategy, but to know to what extent and accuracy these questions may be answered will be essential to the choice of any response strategy. The on-going public discussion about the potential effects of radioactive contamination due to leakage from deposits on the seafloor may serve to illustrate the need for quantitative and scientifically based estimates of oceanographic currents, mixing processes, spreading and ultimately radioecological impact.

Through historical in situ and remote sensing observations of the Kara Sea the project will assemble data and gain knowledge of the governing physical and chemical processes in this sea. Based on this knowledge of the regional oceanic processes, numerical modelling tools will be used to simulate the distribution and spread over time of leakage from various sources on the seafloor.

The project will result in operational models for simulations of the transport and dispersal of radionuclides in the Kara Sea including the effects of ocean hydrodynamics, sea ice and sediment processes. The models will be verified with available observations, and sensitivity analyses will be used to provide estimates of uncertainty in the model results. These model tools will be useful for studies of other types of pollution and could, in the future, be applied to other locations in the Arctic shelf seas. In this project, model simulations will be used to provide estimates of the likely evolution of radionuclide patterns from river sources. In particular, the model study should provide an indication of whether localised hot spots of elevated radiation far from river sources can develop in the Kara Sea due to non-linear mesoscale ocean hydrodynamics.

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Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center
EU-Beitrag
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Edv. Griegs Vei 3a
5037 Solheimsvik - Bergen
Norwegen

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