Foresight for health policy development and regulation
Specific challenge:The complex interactions between multiple determinants of health and wellbeing are not well understood. These include but are not limited to air quality, climate change, traffic and congestion, ambient noise, built environment, urban sprawl, sustainable food systems, waste, lifestyle, behaviour, occupation, demographic change, cultural characteristics, socio-economic factors, globalisation of exchanges of goods and people and so on.
Adding to the complexity, currently used measures and indicators of health status and quality of life are inadequate to capture the effect of these interactions and there is a lack of comparable health related data as produced by different health information systems. Furthermore, the co-existence of a multitude of analytical frameworks, often not multi-factorial in nature, limits the comprehensiveness of the assessment.
Foresight is a powerful tool in providing a systematic and structured approach for understanding stress factors and facilitators affecting health and wellbeing, analysing the range of possible outcomes and for helping to define policy options
Scope: Proposals should identify key driving forces- (external and internal to the health systems) likely to influence health and wellbeing in Europe and beyond in the future. Proposals should contribute to the understanding of the inter-relationships between these factors; analyse their economic and social impact and suggest alternative policy options to respond to the challenges they pose. Proposals should present a comprehensive, structured and participatory framework of analysis, integrating and quantifying key factors impacting health, health inequalities and demand for health services taking Europe's diversity into account. Use of Copernicus[1] data, products and information may be considered where relevant.
Use should be made of current techniques for foresight such as horizon scanning, trend monitoring, and analysis based on epidemiological surveillance (of health and health determinants), weak signal analysis, expert opinion (to create collective intelligence), scenario development, back-casting and wildcards (to help define alternative futures).
Proposals should include quantitative analysis, such as environment, health, economic and other modelling and sensitivity analysis to measure variation in impact of different factors. Proposals should include the identification and validation of relevant measures & indicators and the development of (common) standards. Proposals should capitalise on existing good practice in Europe as well as international level experiences.
The usefulness of current health data and statistics for these modelling exercises should be assessed and suggestions for improvement made. Proposals should also include networking between centres with existing expertise in (health) foresight, both public and private, and partnerships with centres aspiring to develop this expertise.
If more than one proposal is successful, proposals should collaborate and this should be indicated in the proposal.
The Commission considers that proposals requesting a contribution from the EU of between EUR 2 and 3 million would allow this specific challenge to be addressed appropriately. Nonetheless, this does not preclude submission and selection of proposals requesting other amounts.
Expected impact:
- Through the use of a validated analytical framework with a robust set of standardised indicators, the ability to model and track the impact of various factors (internal and external to the health systems) on population health should be improved.
- A basis for policy dialogue, facilitating timely decision making in the EU MS and beyond with regards to health sector reform and guide investments in health care to improve population health.
- Guidance for future health research
Type of action: Research and innovation actions
[1] www.copernicus.eu