ATM Validation for a Digitalised ATM

The scope of this topic covers the following aspects:

Application area 1: Macro-modelling applied to Air Traffic Management

A macro-model is a theoretical or conceptual model that is able to reproduce the behaviour/trends of the whole system, rather than that of its individual elements, and that aims at addressing large-scale, global and/or systemic factors.

Research activities shall develop potential solutions that are able to use in practice the knowledge on emergent behaviour detection and overcome the limitations in this area of the current E-OCVM. In particular, the research may address the following areas:

• Investigate new methodologies and techniques/tools for macro modelling and assess their feasibility and applicability to ATM identifying main advantages and limitations.
• Develop a macro-model of the ATM system (using techniques/tools identified above) and demonstrate:
  • The model capability to assess the potential performance impact of future concepts/solutions (still under validation in Industrial Research, under Exploratory Research, or new ones) at ECAC level The proposal shall describe the reference scenario (ATM system without implemented solutions) and the solution scenario(s) (ATM system with implemented solution(s)) that are intended to be used as test cases to validate the model and demonstrate its capabilities.;
  • The model capability to address trade-offs between alternative concepts/solutions, between KPAs and stakeholders;
  • The model capability to support the decision making process.
  • The capability to address emergent behaviour analysis, in order to allow analysis of impact of new concepts on all stakeholders at the same time, and macro-safety cases based on the emergent behaviours that are detected with the new methodology.

Relevant simplifications and assumptions made for building the macro model should be documented and be delivered with the modal.

• Assess the potential use of models (e.g. agent-based models) in order to consider how uncertainty can impact the output of R&D activities: Run model-based simulations to quantify potential rare event instances (in particular for non-nominal situations) and consider how this can be used in the development cycle in order to identify where uncertainty must be reduced to obtain the target safety level;
• Align to key reference material from SESAR programme i.e. SESAR Performance Framework and SESAR Solutions catalogue (e.g. if the solution is already under development in ER or IR, the proposal shall be aligned to the latest applicable solution description or document any deviation with respect to that baseline). The research may deviate from these references but any deviation shall be documented and its impact on the results evaluated;
• The proposal shall build on the results and work under exploratory projects such as Domino, evoATM, and VISTA, etc. where relevant.
• The technical proposal shall facilitate an iterative and incremental approach towards the objectives, to allow (if required) re-orientation or adaptation of scope, objectives, etc.

Application area 2: Evolution of European Operational Concept Validation Methodology (EOCVM) for ATM

The research aims at performing a critical review of the European Operational Concept Validation Methodology (E-OCVM) and propose concrete improvements to the methodology. These improvements should be well detailed in order to facilitate the transfer, integration and training activities.

In particular the research shall:

• Consider the applicability to ATM of other validation methodologies (that may be used in other domains) e.g. principles of agile development for reducing the duration of R&D phase in ATM, facilitate the identification of emerging solutions that could quickly progress from low maturity levels (V0/V1, typically under the scope of exploratory research) to higher maturity levels (V2/V3, typically under the scope of industrial research) and then towards deployment;
• Critically assess the E-OCVM case based approach, and in particular the safety case, and propose the required improvements so through the application of the methodology it would be possible to identify as soon as possible any safety issue that if un-detected may imply important costs at a later stage e.g. deployment;
• Review the roles and responsibilities in the validation methodology e.g. between development and validation roles;
• Propose ideas to better integrate technical validation of technological solutions (enablers) and technology readiness levels (TRL) into E-OCVM;
• Review the SESAR maturity criteria and propose improvements to the list of criteria and the means of compliance;
• Address the analysis of differences between the validated results e.g. performance benefits at the end of the validation cycle (V3/TRL6) and what happens when solutions are finally implemented and in operations, and extract lessons learnt that could help to improve the E-OCVM and the validation process in general;
• Explore how pilot implementation projects could be used to collect operational data and detect emergent behaviours that could be used to provide feedback to solutions/concepts at lower level of maturity.

Application area 3: Evolution of Human Performance Assessment methodology

This research area aims at developing and validating concrete improvements to the SESAR Human performance Reference Material that can be input in the next cycle of Industrial research, in particular considering environments with higher degrees of automation. Note that Human performance is not only linked to safety but also related to training needs, cost efficiency and workload and that is why this is kept separated from the previous application area. The improvements could cover, for example:

• less invasive techniques for collection of HP data; large-scale data collection of impact of automation on HP;
• innovative use of human performance data collection techniques e.g. speech recognition, brain wave measurements, eye-tracking, etc.;
• human behaviour modelling, e.g. for Fast Time Simulation Fast Time simulation (FTS).

The research shall address the potential use of more advanced HP assessment tools in future R&D work. The research may consider as well behavioural sciences.

Note that the research shall take into consideration both SES performance scheme and SESAR performance framework, and latest applicable version of the SESAR Human Performance Reference Material (HPRM) as the ”as-is” reference.

Although the European Operational Concept Validation Methodology (E-OCVM) has been successfully applied in industrial research activities in SESAR, there is a need to explore potential improvements to the methodology in order to ensure a more flexible and adaptable approach that could facilitate a rapid development and progress towards the future ATM. The vision for this future ATM considers significantly higher levels of connectivity and automation than today and this may need adaptations in the current human performance methodologies to be able to address these challenges.

It is expected that the research in this topic will identify concrete improvements to the methodologies applied in industrial research in SESAR in order to: better consider the challenges derived from the future vision for ATM, to optimise the validation process and to allow the rapid put into operations of innovative ideas with high potential performance benefits.