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Seismic risk evaluation through integrated use of geographical information systems and artificial intelligence techniques.


The purpose of the project is an integrated package of amultiple set of modules that incorporate the expertise of earthquake and structural engineers, seismologists, geologists and architects as knowledge bases for site risk evaluation, model selection, vulnerability and damage assessment.

The principal activities of the porject are as follows:
By this project the general framework for seismic risk assessment considers both probabilistic and deterministic
approaches to combine hazard evaluation with vulnerability factors at different scales. The hazard evaluation
will provide the average measure of the expected earthquake in a given region or, by the deterinistic approach,
the input for scenario analysis. the vulnerability factors will consider some procedures to evaluate the physical
environment vulnerability, models to assess the building vulnerability and methods or qualitative tools to
evaluate urban and systemic vulnerability.
This general framework will be split in different parts to suit different scales (regional, sub-regional and local)
including the collection of new and available data, and the development and integration of software tools inside
the same Geographical Information System (GIS), together with Decision Support System (DSS) modules.
At the regional scale will be analysed the Toscana area (Italy) producing both risk maps and risk scenarios. At
the sub-regional level for the Garfagnana area (Italy) will be carried out, besides slope vulnerability analysis,
also technological vulnerability assessment. Vulnerable technological elements might produce induced hazards
during and after earthquakes that will be part of the final risk assessment and scenarios. At the local scale,
Barcelona city (Spain), the same type analysis will be performed adding the influence of soil conditions on
hazard. Furthermore, at this local level, will be assessed the consequences of some special buildings failure on
the town functionalism.
In all cases the risk assessment will be expressed as the expected damage to urban settlements, to lifelines, to
the social environment, and to economic activities. Maps will be treated in the GIS Arc/Info (ESRI Inc.) system
and connected to Decision Support System modules implemented with the Nexpert Object shell (Neuron Data
Inc.) on UNIX environment. Further, an Hypermedia user front-end will be developed, using Open Interface
(Neuron Data Inc.), that will allow non-trained users both, an easy data access and a fast way to show up their
relationships, possible uses, and functions in the risk map production procedure.
The main deliverables of this research project will be an overall system produced as knowledge-based decision
system for seismic risk assessment at regional, sub-regional and local scale. It will combine in the same
environment both qualitative and quantitative factors, and the capacity of data modelling devoted to produce
seismic risk scenarios and seismic risk maps to help emergency plans and urban and land use planning.


Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
15,Via Bassini
20133 Milano

Participants (6)

S/n,lluis Solt Sabaris S/n
08028 Barcelona
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR)
Via Andrea Maria Ampere 56
00185 Roma
Ingegneria e Architetti Srl (STEC)
Via Vittoria Colonna 27
00193 Roma
International Institute for AerospaceSurvey and Earth Sciences
350,Boulevard 1945
7511 AL Enschede
S/n,jordi Girona 1-3, Modul D2, Campus Nord
08034 Barcelona
Université de Genève
13,Rue Des Maraichers
1211 Genève 4