Objectif TO OBTAIN RESULTS, CRUCIAL FOR THE SIMULATION OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY. THE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) AND THE MUTUAL INTERDEPENDENCIES OF ATMOSPHERE, OCEAN AND SEA ICE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC ("NORTH ATLANTIC COMPLEX" NAC), TO STUDY INTERACTING SYSTEMS A HIERARCHY OF COUPLED SYSTEMS OF DIFFERENT COMPLEXITY WILL BE DEVELOPED. AT MPI, EXISTING MODELS OF ATMOSPHERE, OCEAN AND SEA ICE WILL BE USED TO PERFORM SENSITIVITY STUDIES AND TO CONSTRUCT COUPLED GCMS.AS A PREREQUISITE, THE COUPLED MODELS' TENDENCY TO MIGRATE IN PHASE SPACE TOWARDS AN UNREALISTIC EQUILIBRIUM POINT, DUE TO THE MINOR, BUT INEVITABLE ERRORS OF THE MODEL COMPONENTS, HAS TO BE REMOVED. FOR THIS, THE "FLUX CORRECTION METHOD" WILL BE USED. ENSO : THE COUPLED MODEL WILL BE BUILT UP FROM THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC- AND THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC GCM.THE ANNUAL CYCLE WILL BE IN THE FOCUS OF INTEREST.EXTENDED RANGE SIMULATION OF UP TO 20 YEARS WILL BE CARRIED OUT IN ORDER TO PRODUCE A MODEL-GENERATED SOUTHERN OSCILLATION AND MODEL-GENERATED EL NINO EVENTS.FINALLY FORESCAST EXPERIMENTS WILL BE CONDUCTED TO PREDICT EXTREMES OF ENSO. NAC : IN THE FIRST PHASE, THE MUTUAL SENSITIVITIES OF ATMOSPHERE, OCEAN AND SEA ICE WILL BE STUDIED: * THE EFFECT OF LOCATION OF OCEANIC POLAR FRONT AND ICE EDGE ON LARGE SCALE OCEANIC FLOW AND SST; EXPERIMENTS WILL BE MADE WITH BOTH THE LARGE SCALE GEOSTROPHIC MODEL AND THE ISOPYCNAL MODEL TO TEST THE APPLICABILITY OF BOTH AT HIGH LATITUDES. * THE IMPACT OF MEAN LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW ON ICE EDGE AND ON OCEANIC POLAR FRONT; * THE DEPENDENCY OF LARGE SCALE FLOW, STORM TRACKS AND FREQUENCY OF CYCLOGENESIS ON SST AND ICE EDGE. THE SIMULATION OF THE ANNUAL CYCLE OF THE FULLY COUPLED SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED OUT.SPECIAL EMPHASIS WILL BE PUT ON THE CORRECT SIMULATION OF THE ANNUAL GROWTH AND RETREAT OF THE SEA ICE. THE SPACE-TIME POP-TECHNIQUE WILL BE IMPROVED BY USING THE "PRINCIPAL PREDICTOR PATTERN" -SUBSPACE TO GET A MORE ADEQUATE DATA REDUCTION.FOR THE ESTIMATION OF PROCESS-MATRIX, THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD WILL BE TESTED.THE SPACE-FREQUENCY POP-TECHNIQUE WILL BE REALIZED.TO TEST THE MERITS OF THE SCHEME, IT WILL BE USED TO DIAGNOSE GEOPHYSICAL MULTICOMPONENT TIME SERIES RELATED RO ENSO AND NAC ALREADY ANALYSED BY OTHER TECHNIQUES AS COMPLEX EOFS OR MORE STANDARD APPROACHES. ADVANCED METHODS WILL BE USED FOR DIAGNOSIS AND VALIDATION OF MODELS : * MULTIVARIATE SCHEMES TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN NON-RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS AND NOISE. * POPS IN SPACE-TIME- AND SPACE-FREQUENCY DOMAIN * A DYNAMICAL SCHEME TO ANALYSE THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VARIOUS TERMS FOR THE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO VARYING OR ANOMALOUS SURFACE CONDITIONS. Champ scientifique natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changesel niño Programme(s) FP1-CLIMAT 3C - Multiannual R&D programmes (EEC) in the field of the environment - Climatology and natural hazards - , 1986-1990 Thème(s) Data not available Appel à propositions Data not available Régime de financement CSC - Cost-sharing contracts Coordinateur MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN E.V. Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Bundesstra¯e 55 20146 HAMBURG Allemagne Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée Participants (5) Trier par ordre alphabétique Trier par contribution de l’UE Tout développer Tout réduire HOOKE INST F COOPERATIVE ATM RESEARCH Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée LODYC Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée METEOROLOGISCHE INTITUT Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée ROYAL NETHER METEOR INSTITUT Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée UNIVERSIDAD DE ALCALA DE HENARES Contribution de l’UE Aucune donnée Adresse Voir sur la carte Coût total Aucune donnée
