Objetivo To quantify the predictability of the atmosphere on seasonal timescales over Europe and regions of the world where there may be European interests, and to test the skill of coupled models of the oceans, atmosphere and land surface, including data assimilation to provide initial conditions. The first objective is being pursued through a series of coordinated experiments using four European atmosphere models. These models are being run in ensemble mode over seasonal timescales using observed sea surface temperature and initial conditions from the ECMWF reanalysis period 1979-1994. This coordinated experimentation was underway at the beginning of the project, and is likely to be completed by the end of the first year. Diagnosis of results will take another year, and involves additional participants in the project. Complex numerical coupled models and ocean data assimilation techniques are being developed by five participants of the projects, and the ability to run hindcast experimentation will be possible by the second year of the project. Testing the skill of the numerical coupled model seasonal forecasts will begin in the second year of the project, through coordinated experimentation. Special attention will be given to the period 1990 onwards, since the ocean (especially the El Niqo region), was relatively well observed in that period. The skill of dynamically based seasonal forecasts will be compared with that obtainable by empirical prediction techniques. In addition the possibility of using these techniques (eg based on singular value decomposition) to correct, a posteriori, dynamical model biases will be investigated. Finally, close coordination between PROVOST and the monsoon project SHIVA will take place throughout the term of the project. As well as undertaking joint numerical exerimentation, the SHIVA and PROVOST project will meet jointly each year. Programa(s) FP4-ENV 2C - Specific programme of research and technological development in the field of environment and climate, 1994-1998 Tema(s) 010103 - Climate variability, simulation of climate and prediction of climate change Convocatoria de propuestas Data not available Régimen de financiación CSC - Cost-sharing contracts Coordinador European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts - ECMWF Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección Shinfield Park RG2 9AX READING Reino Unido Ver en el mapa Enlaces Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos Participantes (10) Ordenar alfabéticamente Ordenar por aportación de la UE Ampliar todo Contraer todo CONSORZIO INTERUNIVERSITARIO PER LA GESTIONE DEL CENTRO DI CALCOLO ELETTRONICO DELL'ITALIA NORD ORIENTALE Italia Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección Via Magnanelli 6/3 CANTAGALLO Ver en el mapa Enlaces Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) Italia Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección Via Emilia Est 770 41100 Modena Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE Dinamarca Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección 100,Lyngbyvej 100 2100 KOEPENHAGEN Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos Electricité de France (EDF) Francia Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección 6 Quai Watier 78401 Chatou Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER WISSENSCHAFTEN E.V. Alemania Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección Bundesstra¯e 55 20146 HAMBURG Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos METEO-FRANCE Francia Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección 42,Avenue G. Coriolis 42 31057 TOULOUSE Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos SECRETARY OF STATE FOR DEFENCE - MINISTRY OF DEFENCE Reino Unido Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección Fitzroy Road, Metz Office EX1 3PB EXETER Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos UNIVERSITE PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE - PARIS VI Francia Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección Place Jussieu 4 75252 PARIS Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos Universidad de Alcala de Henares España Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección 20,Apartado 28880 Madrid Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos Università degli Studi di Bologna Italia Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección Via Irnerio 46 40126 Bologna Ver en el mapa Coste total Sin datos
