Objectif
The project consists in the development of a new approach to prediction of major events in fracture process at a broad range of scales, from laboratory samples of metals and rocks to structural elements and seismically active lithosphere. The project united specialists from three INTAS member states and three NIS teams, which will work in different fields: seismology, damage and fracture mechanics, material science and non-linear dynamics.
The objectives and relevant research activities are the following:
- To establish the connection between kinetics of damage accumulation on one side, and acoustic emission and ultrasound propagation on another side. This will be done by laboratory experiments with the samples of different microstructure;
- To explore whether these connections are reflected in dynamics of seismicity and in seismic waves propagation, in different seismotectonic environments;
- To explore the possibility to use these connections for estimation of time to a major event (time to specimen fracture; time to a major earthquake). This will be done by retrospective analysis of seismicity and seismic wave attenuation in the lithosphere; acoustic emission and ultrasound propagation in samples.
- To use the approaches of the theory of critical phenomena for analysing the data obtained;
- To elaborate new precursors of major event in specimen (or structural element) at loading and in the crust at the earthquake preparation
The following results are anticipated:
(1) The connection of the kinetic fracture parameters with physical properties (acoustic emission and ultrasound propagation) and the material damage at various stages of fracture will be established;
(2) The parameters of seismicity, which are analogues, in the physical sense, of those of acoustic emission, will be estimated;
(3) Basic characteristics of the critical phenomenon theory (order parameters and critical exponents) reflecting transition to a critical state of solid will be estimated through the observable data, seismological and laboratory ones. On that basis new precursors of major event will be developed;
(4) Similar analysis will be done on the basis of percolation theory and the ideas of generalized conductivity. It is supposed that results obtained will serve as a basis for predicting the remaining lifetime of intermediate scale objects - structural elements of geotechnical and other engineering constructions.
The results will be published as scientific papers in international and Russian journals, disseminated via Internet, and reported at conferences.
Appel à propositions
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91904 Jerusalem
Israël