Objetivo The funded research investigates the role of expectations in financial decisions by asking two separate empirical questions. First, what systematic patterns appear in the expectations that the investor holds about relevant random variables? Second, can we establish that her expectations play a causal role for choices? The main tool in addressing these questions is the collection of data from laboratory experiments and large-sample household surveys. We also develop novel econometric methods and behavioral models of portfolio choice.The majority of the planned studies add to the literature on biases in expectations. They conform to the revealed-expectations paradigm of expected utility, but ask whether the underlying expectations are suboptimal in predictable ways: (i) Are rational expectations violated systematically more in markets where agents need to make complicated inferences about fundamental information – e.g. where the inference occurs at the interim stage, before agents can observe realized prices and other agents’ choices (like in Rational Expectations Equilibrium)? (ii) Are agents able to successfully process the covariance of returns in portfolio-choice problems? (iii) Are investment herds excessively large and stable because people do not realize that other agents whom they observe also rely on others? (iv) Why do many people embark in risky gambling strategies under the false perception that they will stop after a few losses? The answers to these questions will contribute to the understanding of investment choices generally, and unnecessary risk exposure in particular.In further studies, we ask about the causal link between expectations and choices. This will contribute to the evaluation of decision-theoretic models but can also inform economic policy, as the causal link from expectations to choices is an important component in the design of policy campaigns that work via affecting beliefs. We introduce artificially created instrumental variables into choice situations and use their exogenous influence to identify causal effects. Programa(s) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Tema(s) ERC-SG-SH1 - ERC Starting Grant - Individuals, institutions and markets Convocatoria de propuestas ERC-2010-StG_20091209 Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoria Régimen de financiación ERC-SG - ERC Starting Grant Institución de acogida HUMBOLDT-UNIVERSITAET ZU BERLIN Aportación de la UE € 380 235,37 Dirección UNTER DEN LINDEN 6 10117 Berlin Alemania Ver en el mapa Región Berlin Berlin Berlin Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Investigador principal Georg Heinrich Weizsaecker (Prof.) Contacto administrativo Ingmar Schmidt (Dr.) Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos Beneficiarios (7) Ordenar alfabéticamente Ordenar por aportación de la UE Ampliar todo Contraer todo HUMBOLDT-UNIVERSITAET ZU BERLIN Alemania Aportación de la UE € 380 235,37 Dirección UNTER DEN LINDEN 6 10117 Berlin Ver en el mapa Región Berlin Berlin Berlin Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Investigador principal Georg Heinrich Weizsaecker (Prof.) Contacto administrativo Ingmar Schmidt (Dr.) Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE Reino Unido Aportación de la UE € 73 056,83 Dirección Houghton Street 1 WC2A 2AE London Ver en el mapa Región London Inner London — West Westminster Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contacto administrativo Maribel Glogowski (Ms.) Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos THE UNIVERSITY COURT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN La participación finalizó Reino Unido Aportación de la UE Sin datos Dirección KING'S COLLEGE REGENT WALK AB24 3FX ABERDEEN Ver en el mapa Región Scotland North Eastern Scotland Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contacto administrativo Crystal Anderson (Ms.) Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FUR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG DIW (INSTITUT FUR KONJUNKTURFORSCHUNG) EV Alemania Aportación de la UE € 438 534,54 Dirección MOHRENSTRASSE 58 10117 Berlin Ver en el mapa Región Berlin Berlin Berlin Tipo de actividad Research Organisations Contacto administrativo Meike Janssen (Ms.) Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON La participación finalizó Aportación de la UE € 195 157,66 Dirección GOWER STREET WC1E 6BT LONDON Ver en el mapa Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contacto administrativo Greta Borg-Carbott (Ms.) Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos WISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUM BERLIN FUR SOZIALFORSCHUNG GGMBH Alemania Aportación de la UE € 82 291,20 Dirección REICHPIETSCHUFER 50 10785 Berlin Ver en el mapa Región Berlin Berlin Berlin Tipo de actividad Research Organisations Contacto administrativo Claudia Buchmann (Ms.) Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos THE UNIVERSITY COURT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS Reino Unido Aportación de la UE € 53 054,40 Dirección NORTH STREET 66 COLLEGE GATE KY16 9AJ St Andrews Ver en el mapa Región Scotland Eastern Scotland Clackmannanshire and Fife Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Contacto administrativo Trish Starrs (Ms.) Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Coste total Sin datos