In-depth analysis exposes risk factors for violent extremism
The ERC-funded GRIEVANCE project aims to advance the understanding and reduce the risk of extremist violence in all contexts. According to principal investigator Paul Gill: “Collectively, I think we've raised the bar and set an agenda for what the scientific study of risk and protective factors for violent extremism should look like.”
Innovative research
GRIEVANCE applied novel approaches to analyse risk factors associated with violent extremism. Among their innovative achievements, the team added to the field of terrorism studies by producing the first nationally representative survey to examine radical intentions and attitudes in the UK. They were also the first to apply risk terrain modelling to extremist violence in a Western context, as well as the first to apply discrete choice modelling to understand terrorist spatial decision-making. In one example of how the project applied innovative modelling to spatial data to better analyse terrorist events, researchers learned that terrorist attacks increased in likelihood when the perpetrator resided close by. In another example, with respect to dissident Republican violence in Northern Ireland, an area was more likely to be chosen for attack if it contained a major road, police station or military base.
Developing data sets and data scientists
Much of the analysis performed by GRIEVANCE would not be possible without robust data sets. A major goal of the project was to move terrorism research beyond anecdotal stories that may obscure the bigger picture. Consequently, as well as using existing data sets, the team developed data sets through phone and online surveys and collaborated with agencies, such as police departments. They also interviewed people who were involved in terrorism or violent extremism and gathered data through linguistic analysis. “Traditionally, terrorism studies have been viewed as devoid of data. They have come a long way in the last decade,” Gill explains. The collection and management of data related to the risk of violent extremism required a lot of organisation. Initial steps involved analysing the risk of radicalisation and recruitment. Further effort concentrated on spatial and temporal risk factors of violent extremism. Finally, researchers focused on potential negative impacts of government policies and counter-terrorism efforts. GRIEVANCE has contributed much to the study of counter-terrorism, including the development of innovative techniques, new data sets and contribution to the field through dozens of publications in peer-reviewed journals. All these efforts demanded a strong cohort of data scientists, and one very promising outcome of the project was the development of human potential. “An important impact that the GRIEVANCE project will have is undoubtedly the cohort of early-career researchers it funded as research assistants and postdoctoral fellows,” Gill comments. “Every one of them has already led influential work.” GRIEVANCE has made significant strides in understanding the risk factors involved in acts of violent extremism. They have developed large data sets as well as analytic techniques that help to broaden the study of extremist violence. The direction taken by GRIEVANCE will also allow investigators in related fields to deepen their understanding and combat the threat of violence in many contexts, including domestic abuse, cybercrime and youth violence. GRIEVANCE has set a course for making Europe a safer place.
Keywords
GRIEVANCE, data sets, violent extremism, risk factors, radicalisation, terrorism studies, risk terrain modelling
