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Models of technological change

An EU team has developed a new Foresight Model and decision support database tool to help determine expectations and risks in the Security domain. This work drew upon 28 projects and studies from the EU and beyond.

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The Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) has funded numerous studies attempting to forecast the future of security technology. Inaccurate forecasts can be costly, both financially and politically. The EU-funded FORCE (Foresight coordination for Europe) project has created a Foresight Model and corresponding Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS), based on reviewing and mapping 28 previous forecasting studies, and summarising previous methods used and their contexts of use. This will assist policy makers and stakeholders in the Security domain to determine expectations and risks from future social and technological trends using methodologies and information from past, current and future Foresight research activities. This will also assist decision makers to strategically plan for short-term, medium -term and long-term security risks related to emerging technologies and social changes in society. The IDSS was shown to be scalable, able to connect to external sources and continue growing beyond the project's end. The combination of the Foresight Model and IDSS provides extensive search and evaluation capabilities concerning the reviewed information from previous projects. The team integrated and tested all system components, and the project organised two validation events during early 2016. FORCE outcomes mean greater accuracy concerning predictions of technological change in the security industry, and less risky investment. Watch the project’s video here.


Technological change, security technologies, decision support, FORCE, foresight model

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