Catching up with T-FORS: Taking forecasting of wave-like irregularities in the Earth’s ionosphere to the next level
The EU-funded T-FORS(opens in new window) project was launched in 2023 to tackle the disruption caused by specific space weather perturbations in the Earth’s ionosphere – travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) – to critical space and ground communications and navigation systems. The project set out to develop new and improved models that issue forecasts and warnings for TIDs several hours ahead. The resulting user-oriented European forecasting framework was achieved by combining solar, interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric and atmospheric observations with machine learning-based forecasting in a real-time setting. More than a year after T-FORS ended in 2024, its achievements are already being leveraged by research and operational communities.
Better forecasting and beyond
T-FORS made its final forecasting codes available to the community. Its open-access repository(opens in new window) includes medium-scale TID climatology data and models for forecasting large-scale TIDs one to three hours ahead. With easy access to these resources, other researchers are able to test, validate, extend or adapt the models to new regions or datasets. The project is also producing reports comparing its model forecasts with actual observed TID events to determine forecasting accuracy and to identify the most effective features. These benchmarked results will help researchers compare different modelling approaches and further refine the T-FORS models. Building effective forecasting tools was not T-FORS’s sole endeavour. The project additionally sought to increase our understanding of TIDs and their drivers, which it is now making a reality. Researchers have subsequently used T-FORS data to analyse large-scale TID climatology over Europe between 2014 and 2023, showing dependencies on season, local time, geomagnetic activity, preferred propagation directions and velocities, among others. These catalogues and climatological analyses are aiding further research into atmospheric coupling and ionospheric variability, or validating independent detection methods. T-FORS’s innovative use of machine learning algorithms to forecast TID occurrence and propagation has further led to follow-up research published in the ‘Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate’. These include a technical article(opens in new window) explaining the machine learning model of large-scale TID regional forecasting and a research article(opens in new window) on a large-scale TID forecasting model applied to specific locations in Europe.
Looking to the future
T-FORS’s results are expected to inform next-generation operational services for ionospheric forecasting, particularly for Europe’s civil protection agencies, space safety operations, space weather prediction centres and radio communication services. The project’s methodology combining multi-domain observations with machine learning-based forecasting could also serve as a blueprint for other geospace forecasting efforts. Europe’s first end-to-end system for TID forecasting was made possible thanks to EU support. “Horizon Europe funding was crucial in enabling collaboration, innovation and open dissemination that individual national initiatives could not have achieved alone,” states Anna Belehaki, T-FORS project coordinator, and Research Director at the Institute of Astronomy Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, National Observatory of Athens, Greece. The resulting international cooperation, robust infrastructure development and broad dissemination have ensured the operational and societal relevance of the scientific advances achieved within T-FORS (TRAVELLING IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES FORECASTING SYSTEM). The ‘Life After’ feature shines a light on finished EU-funded projects and what they have achieved since the end of EU funding. If you are interested in having your project featured as a ‘Life After’ project, please send us an email to editorial@cordis.europa.eu and tell us why!