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Europe's evolving security: drivers, trends and scenarios

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A common vision of European security

What threats will Europe face in the future? A research project has undertaken the first Europe-wide survey of security and strengthened networking of experts.

Digital Economy

Security policies have traditionally been looked at from a national viewpoint, producing a fragmented picture across Europe. A recently completed project has brought together experts from across the EU to assess whether a shared concept of security can be developed. Funded under the EU's Seventh Framework Programme for Research (FP7), the project 'Europe's evolving security: drivers, trends and scenarios' (Foresec) was a 'foresight' exercise to assess current and longer term threats to European security. The first stage in the project, which began in February 2008, involved an in-depth analysis of existing work in this field. This produced 12 country reports and an overview of the global trends that influence European security. Next a workshop was held to debate the findings with 80 experts in the security field from across Europe. The results of this then fed into a Delphi survey on key security issues held between December 2008 and February 2009. This is a structured group interaction process involving rounds of opinion collection and feedback. The results of each survey were presented to a group of and the statements used in the subsequent round. Over 300 experts were involved in the survey. They assessed possible factors and impacts on security up to 2025, looking at economic, political, environmental, technological and societal areas. The results of the survey were evaluated in a series of workshops in six different countries and a number of policy options were developed to prevent, mitigate and ultimately counter risks. The project produced a detailed report of its findings and recommendations. It has also helped to create greater networking of security experts from across the EU.

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