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Probabilistic Long-term Assessment of New Energy Technology Scenarios

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Robust energy scenarios to guide EU policies

Quantitative and analytical tools are being used to devise robust scenarios for the evolution of energy technologies over the next 50 years.

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Climate change, declining stocks of fossil fuels and political instability all threaten energy security in the EU. Scientists are therefore attempting to draw up clear energy scenarios for the next 50 years to help policymakers develop the best environmental and energy policies, through the 'Probabilistic long-term assessment of new energy technology scenarios' (Planets) project. Researchers will use quantitative and analytical tools to predict the best technological hedging policy in response to future environmental and energy policies, while technological assessments will provide the necessary guidance on technology availability and competitiveness. Given the long-term nature of the analysis and the many uncertainties surrounding the natural, technological and socioeconomic determinants, the scenarios will be accompanied by probabilistic modelling analysis. The Planets project will examine how all environmental and energy factors at a European and global level may influence the deployment of new technologies with respect to a business-as-usual scenario. This project will also analyse the links between European and world perspectives of energy technology futures and forecasts, in particular in terms of issues like economic competitiveness and the capacity to export clean technology, including carbon capture and storage.

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