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Agricultural member state modelling for the EU and Eastern European countries

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A crystal ball for agriculture

Sophisticated models for agriculture in Europe allow policymakers to look into the future and improve strategies for different agricultural sectors.


In order for Europe's agriculture and trade to thrive, there must be a mechanism to measure the effectiveness of the sectors' policies and develop models for their growth. The EU-funded project 'Agricultural member state modelling for the EU and Eastern European countries' (Agmemod 2020) has developed country models for various countries that reflect the complex agricultural systems in the EU. As a model, Agmemod mapped the diverse agricultural systems in the EU in a consistent way, focusing on demand and supply for the most important agricultural products in each country. It is a database of balance sheets for all commodities involved, including raw products, production, imports, human food use, feed use, processing, exports and final products. The baseline in the study looked at commodities such as milk quotas and butter, and incorporated World Trade Organization (WTO) reforms, export subsidies and other considerations. It examined the consequences of quota removal for milk and milk products on prices, considering also how policies could be harmonised in the dairy field. The study projected a decrease in exports, an increase in cheese production and a decrease in contribution of the dairy sector towards EU beef output over time. It examined possible price increases, stabilisation of production, and fluctuation in feed prices. The project revealed many interesting observations that could assist in policymaking. For example, it was found that the consequences of removing the milk quota on other agricultural sectors are minimal. In summary, Agmemod 2020 developed a robust set of commodity supply and utilisation datasets for EU Member States as well as for Croatia, FYROM, Russia and the Ukraine. A database of EU common agricultural policy instruments was also developed. The project provided policy analysis on the impact of milk quota abolition and reform in the sector, contributing to sector networks and information exchange within greater Europe on the whole.

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