Expert judgement and consequences of uncertainty
21 June 1999 - 21 June 1999
Netherlands
A workshop on "Expert judgement and accident consequence uncertainty analysis" will be held in Avifauna, The Netherlands, from 21 to 24 June 1999. It will be jointly organised by the European Commission and the Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
The event will serve as a forum for the presentation of a major study which has been undertaken to estimate the uncertainty associated with the predictions in probabilistic accident consequence assessment codes. The study was carried out under the auspices of the European Commission's Nuclear Fission Safety research programme, in collaboration with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
The first workshop will be on methods for experts judgement and uncertainty analysis and will have the following objectives:
- To evaluate and determine the strengths and limitations of the formal use of expert judgements as a means to get uncertainty distributions for parameters which are difficult to obtain by experiments or experience;
- To establish consensus on the uncertainty analysis methods to get generic uncertainty data on consequence assessment endpoints;
- To explore the need for further research in methods for, and use of, expert judgement for uncertainty analysis.
The second workshop will address uncertainty analysis of accident consequence predictions of the COSYMA code and its sub-modules and will have the following objectives:
- To present the results of the uncertainty analysis to a wider audience;
- To evaluate the methods used in deriving uncertainty estimates of COSYMA and each of its sub-modules;
- To provide generic estimates of uncertainty associated with COSYMA predictions for practical use by utilities and regulators.
For further information, please contact:
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
Safety Science Group
Kanaalweg 2b
2628 EB Delft
The Netherlands
Tel. +31-15-2781477; Fax +31-15-2622235
E-mail: Gemma.vanderWindt@wtm.tudelft.nl
The event will serve as a forum for the presentation of a major study which has been undertaken to estimate the uncertainty associated with the predictions in probabilistic accident consequence assessment codes. The study was carried out under the auspices of the European Commission's Nuclear Fission Safety research programme, in collaboration with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
The first workshop will be on methods for experts judgement and uncertainty analysis and will have the following objectives:
- To evaluate and determine the strengths and limitations of the formal use of expert judgements as a means to get uncertainty distributions for parameters which are difficult to obtain by experiments or experience;
- To establish consensus on the uncertainty analysis methods to get generic uncertainty data on consequence assessment endpoints;
- To explore the need for further research in methods for, and use of, expert judgement for uncertainty analysis.
The second workshop will address uncertainty analysis of accident consequence predictions of the COSYMA code and its sub-modules and will have the following objectives:
- To present the results of the uncertainty analysis to a wider audience;
- To evaluate the methods used in deriving uncertainty estimates of COSYMA and each of its sub-modules;
- To provide generic estimates of uncertainty associated with COSYMA predictions for practical use by utilities and regulators.
For further information, please contact:
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
Safety Science Group
Kanaalweg 2b
2628 EB Delft
The Netherlands
Tel. +31-15-2781477; Fax +31-15-2622235
E-mail: Gemma.vanderWindt@wtm.tudelft.nl