Paleoclimate science for a better understanding of the short- to long-term evolution of the Earth system

The geological and ice-core records provide long-term information on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological, and social systems during interglacial periods, deglaciations and abrupt climatic events. The challenge of the research under this topic is to test Earth system models over selected past climate scenarios, outside the range of variability recorded over the past centuries.

This challenge will be tackled through the following activities:

• Producing and aggregating in databases high-resolution, well-dated, interoperable paleoclimatic records on climate changes from the past (e.g. temperature, GHG concentrations, sea level, ocean circulation variability, seasonality, and precipitation).
• Using paleo-archives at high resolution to extend the instrumental time series for better understating of the proxy records and for improved quantification of their uncertainties.
• Development of Earth system models with outputs that allow a more direct comparison to paleo-data, modelling climate variability, thresholds, and impacts across timescales from years to millennia (e.g. isotope-enabled general circulation models with dynamic ice sheet components that represent relevant feedbacks).
• Describing short- to long-term climate evolution using quantitative reconstructions from different proxies of past climate periods that are of particular relevance with respect to the current climate change scenario.
• Identification of climate tipping points, cascading effects, and environmental limits using paleo data and model experiments.
• Comparing changes in marine, terrestrial and glacier settings to evaluate ocean–land–cryosphere interactions.
• Documenting and quantifying the natural climate variability, in terms of amplitude, time (onset, duration, frequency) and space (location, extension).
• Allowing for consistent integration of large-scale and more regional/local factors to be reproduced by climate models using natural forcings.

Synergies with projects resulting from the topic HORIZON-CL5-2023-D1-01-02: Climate-related tipping points should be established.

The projects should rely on paleoclimatic data from scientific drilling campaigns, and other appropriate sources.

When dealing with models, actions should promote the highest standards of transparency and openness, as much as possible going well beyond documentation and extending to aspects such as assumptions, code and data that is managed in compliance with the FAIR principles[[ FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable).]]. In addition, full openness of any new modules, models or tools developed from scratch or substantially improved with the use of EU funding is expected.